Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?

Politics Iran One Off Open Ends Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
December 31
26.5%
$0.265
July 31
4.5%
$0.045
June 30
1.2%
$0.012
Volume$15.94M Liquidity$383.84K Open Interest$1.15M Last updated1 min ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 18, 2026 2:02 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 18, 2026, 11:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Prices imply a limited chance that Tehran makes a public, verifiable surrender pledge before the resolution cutoff, not merely resumes talks.

The key claim is diplomatic specificity: a public agreement to surrender enriched uranium stockpile, which is narrower than inspections, caps, or negotiations.

Mixed signal 62% CatalystFormal Iran-IAEA or Iran-P5+1 statement RiskAmbiguous wording around “surrender”

What could reprice it

The next repricing trigger is any official Iran, IAEA, UN, or P5+1 communiqué that shifts from talks toward stockpile transfer terms.

Headlines about negotiations matter less than language on custody, destination, timing, and whether enriched uranium leaves Iranian control.

Mixed signal 58% CatalystOfficial nuclear-diplomacy communiqué RiskMedia leaks may not satisfy rules

Where the market may be weak

The menu dates can distract from the actual rule cutoff; resolution turns on a specific public agreement by March 31, 2026 ET.

Liquidity is meaningful but not deep enough to treat short-term moves as a clean diplomatic signal, especially with multi-timeframe framing.

Rules risk 48% RiskDate framing and settlement-language mismatch

Counter-signal

The market may underprice a sudden bargain if sanctions relief, security guarantees, or crisis de-escalation make stockpile transfer politically useful.

Nuclear diplomacy often moves discontinuously; a narrow binary can reprice sharply on official concessions even after long stalemate.

Counterweight 43% CatalystSanctions or security package announcement RiskDomestic Iranian backlash or denial

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Platform
Category
Politics › Iran
Close date
December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules

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