Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Current Odds
Odds Summary
December 31 leads at 7.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The 3%-7.5% Yes prices imply Iran did not publicly agree to surrender enriched uranium by the stated March cutoff.
Because the rule fixes eligibility at March 31, these later-dated frames are pricing a historical binary claim, not the chance of a new negotiation.
What Could Reprice It
The January 1, 2027 market close makes Polymarket settlement or a rules clarification the main remaining repricing event, not a new Iran decision.
No specific future diplomatic meeting or decision is supplied. The March 31 eligibility deadline had already passed by the current date.
Where the Market May Be Weak
October 31 and December 31 prices sit beside a rule requiring agreement by March 31, creating a material timing-and-settlement mismatch.
The January 1, 2027 close date does not resolve that conflict: later timeframes cannot change eligibility if the stated March rule governs.
Counter-Signal
The March 12 U.N. record showed a defined diplomatic off-ramp remained available, challenging any assumption that a public accord was impossible.
France, the United Kingdom, and Germany offered an extension conditional on uranium accounting, IAEA compliance, and resumed direct diplomacy.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Scheduled deadline
- January 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 7.5% and October 31 at 1.3%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $18.02M volume, $206.21K liquidity, and $273.32K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 7, 2026, 00:45 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
The 3%-7.5% Yes prices imply Iran did not publicly agree to surrender enriched uranium by the stated March cutoff. Because the rule fixes eligibility at March 31, these later-dated frames are pricing a historical binary claim, not the chance of a new negotiation. Catalysts to watch include Polymarket settlement or cutoff clarification and Jan. 1, 2027 close; settlement or clarification.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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