Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by…?
Current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market at 13.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jul 11, 2026 2:02 pm.
What could move Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect reported Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Pricing implies a low but nonzero chance that Iran made a qualifying public agreement before the March 31 deadline, not that a new deal can still qualify.
The key claim is evidentiary: whether a qualifying public surrender agreement existed by the rules deadline and can be validated for settlement.
What could reprice it
The material catalyst is a resolution-stage clarification or cited official record showing whether any pre-deadline Iranian agreement met the wording.
Future repricing is more likely from adjudication, source disputes, or new documentation about past statements than from fresh diplomacy.
Where the market may be weak
The listed outcome dates conflict with a March 31 resolution deadline, creating a binary wording trap for traders reading the visible timeframes.
Liquidity is meaningful, but the rules mismatch can make displayed date buckets less informative than the underlying settlement clause.
Counter-signal
The market may underprice Yes if a qualifying pre-March 31 public statement exists but has not been widely surfaced or accepted by resolvers.
Conversely, post-deadline diplomatic headlines should not count unless they document a qualifying agreement made before the cutoff.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
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Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market FAQ
What are the current Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds?
Polymarket reports Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… odds with December 31 at 13.5%, October 31 at 8%, August 31 at 4%, and July 31 at 1%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $17.25M volume, $327.49K liquidity, and $516.05K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Jul 11, 2026, 13:02 UTC.
What could move the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market odds?
Pricing implies a low but nonzero chance that Iran made a qualifying public agreement before the March 31 deadline, not that a new deal can still qualify. The key claim is evidentiary: whether a qualifying public surrender agreement existed by the rules deadline and can be validated for settlement. Catalysts to watch include Settlement evidence review, Polymarket/UMA resolution, and Official records surfacing.
How does the Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by… prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.