Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date
Odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market at 21.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jul 28, 2026 8:12 pm.
What could move the odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect the reported prediction-market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
The December 31 contract implies a ceasefire meeting the 10-day durability test is possible in 2026, but remains the minority scenario.
Its 22% Yes price embeds a roughly 78% implied chance that no qualifying ceasefire is in force by the deadline, rather than merely no diplomatic contact.
What could reprice it
A public negotiating framework emerging from the restarted diplomatic contacts is the clearest catalyst, since it could alter views on a durable ceasefire.
Ukraine’s president said on July 22 that diplomacy had been discussed with U.S. envoys. No specific post-July 28 meeting or decision date is supplied.
Where the market may be weak
The contract’s signal is limited by settlement ambiguity: it requires a ceasefire to “go into effect” for 10 days without naming a verifying authority.
Volume does not itself establish current depth or broad participation. The stated $150K liquidity and $239.15K open interest offer some market structure, but no trader count or settlement source.
Counter-signal
Escalating EU sanctions and Russia’s reported lack of a tangible proposal provide a strong reason a qualifying 2026 ceasefire may not materialize.
The EU adopted its 21st sanctions package on July 23 and renewed broader economic sanctions through July 31, 2027, conditions that can constrain near-term compromise.
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Russia
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds?
Polymarket reports Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds with December 31 at 21.5% and October 31 at 11.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $926.01K volume, $153.17K liquidity, and $239.15K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Jul 28, 2026, 19:12 UTC.
What could move the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market odds?
The December 31 contract implies a ceasefire meeting the 10-day durability test is possible in 2026, but remains the minority scenario. Its 22% Yes price embeds a roughly 78% implied chance that no qualifying ceasefire is in force by the deadline, rather than merely no diplomatic contact. Catalysts to watch include Public ceasefire framework or announcement, Public framework or talks breakdown, and Resolution-source clarification.
How does the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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