A prediction market lets users trade on whether something will happen. That could be an election result, a sports game, a rate decision, a crypto price level, or a weather event. The contract is tied to a defined outcome and a stated resolution source.
Most platforms still use yes/no contracts. Some also offer multiple-choice, range, or scalar contracts. In a basic yes/no market, the winning side settles at $1 and the losing side settles at $0.
Prices also act like implied probabilities. If a Yes contract trades at 38 cents, the market is roughly implying a 38% chance of that outcome. If the price later rises, the user may be able to sell early instead of waiting for final settlement.
| Contract Type | How It Works |
|---|
| Yes / No | Pays $1 if the stated outcome happens, $0 if it does not |
| Multiple-Choice | The winning outcome settles, and the others expire worthless |
| Range | Pays based on which defined band or bracket the final result lands in |
| Scalar | Pays according to how far the final result moves along a numeric scale |
A simple example helps. Say a market asks whether the Fed will cut rates in June and the Yes side trades at 42 cents. If a user buys there and the price later moves to 60 cents, they may be able to exit early and lock in a gain before the meeting happens. If they hold to settlement, the contract pays $1 if the event resolves Yes and $0 if it resolves No.
That is also why prediction markets are not the same as just betting. The user is not only picking an outcome, they are also choosing an entry price, deciding whether to exit early, and relying on the platform's rules, liquidity, and payout flow. That is why platform choice matters. A weak market can turn a good call into a bad trade.