Politics Russia

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date

October 31

$324.81K Vol.

7.5%

Yes 8¢ No 93¢

December 31

$450.08K Vol.

14.5% 3%

Yes 15¢ No 86¢

Odds summary

December 31 currently leads the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market at 14.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.

Volume$1.12M Liquidity$373.39K Open Interest$343.12K Last updated24 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Aug 22, 2026 1:07 pm.

Market-implied thesis

The 15.5% December Yes price implies a relatively low chance that a qualifying Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is both effective and durable by year-end.

This is a claim about a ceasefire taking effect by December 31, not merely an announcement or negotiation. The lower October price suggests the market assigns more possibility to a later-than-near-term path.

Mixed signal 64% CatalystA ceasefire taking effect before the deadline RiskDurability requirement narrows qualifying outcomes

What could reprice it

The clearest repricing catalyst would be a ceasefire that actually enters force, followed by evidence it remains uninterrupted for 10 calendar days.

Polymarket's rule makes implementation, rather than a signed framework alone, decisive. Once a ceasefire takes effect, the market can assess whether the required continuous 10-day period is achievable.

Strong signal 74% CatalystCeasefire implementation and 10-day continuity test RiskAn interruption would invalidate the qualifying event

Where the market may be weak

Listed liquidity may support trading, but it does not establish broad participation or independent conviction because no trader count is supplied.

The $1.12 million volume and $376,000 liquidity figures show activity and available depth, not whether views come from many participants. The multi-timeframe display also reflects Yes prices from underlying binary markets.

Mixed signal 52% CatalystNew participant activity or deeper order books RiskAttention and volume may overstate consensus

Counter-signal

Even a public ceasefire deal could fail to qualify if it does not take effect by the date or suffers any break during the required 10 days.

The 7.5% October price versus 15.5% for December indicates the market sees more room in the later window, but still prices a durable, rule-compliant outcome as uncommon rather than a simple diplomatic milestone.

Strong signal 76% CatalystAny reported violation during the 10-day period RiskSettlement depends on continuous effectiveness

Market details

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Platform
Category: Politics › Russia
Close date: December 31, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC
Market rules summary: Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules

Frequently asked questions

What are the current Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds?

Polymarket reports Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds with December 31 at 14.5% and October 31 at 7.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $1.12M volume, $373.39K liquidity, and $343.12K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Aug 22, 2026, 12:07 UTC.

What could move the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market odds?

The 15.5% December Yes price implies a relatively low chance that a qualifying Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is both effective and durable by year-end. This is a claim about a ceasefire taking effect by December 31, not merely an announcement or negotiation. The lower October price suggests the market assigns more possibility to a later-than-near-term path. Catalysts to watch include A ceasefire taking effect before the deadline, Ceasefire implementation and 10-day continuity test, and New participant activity or deeper order books.

How does the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.