Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by…?

Politics Russia One Off Open Ends Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
December 31
31.5%
$0.315
October 31
19.5%
$0.195
June 30
3%
$0.03
Volume$404.31K Liquidity$193.61K Open Interest$156.07K Last updated6 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 15, 2026 1:02 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 15, 2026, 11:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Pricing implies a durable ceasefire is still viewed as unlikely before autumn, with better odds only as the 2026 deadline window widens.

The 10-day continuity requirement makes this a claim about an implemented and sustained halt, not just a diplomatic announcement.

Mixed signal 67% CatalystFormal ceasefire text or monitored implementation date RiskAnnouncement may not satisfy 10-day rule

What could reprice it

The next major repricer is not routine battlefield news but a verified negotiation step that specifies start time, scope, monitors, and parties bound.

Markets can move sharply if an official framework converts vague talks into a dated ceasefire capable of meeting the settlement test.

Mixed signal 61% CatalystOfficial peace framework or implementation timetable RiskTalks without enforcement may fade

Where the market may be weak

Liquidity is meaningful but not deep enough to treat small daily moves as geopolitical information, especially across several linked deadlines.

Multi-timeframe binaries can fragment attention; later-date prices may reflect calendar optionality as much as fresh ceasefire evidence.

Thin signal 48% RiskFragmented liquidity and stale repricing

Counter-signal

The market may underprice a sudden negotiated pause if both sides face external pressure to lock in lines before the 2026 political calendar tightens.

Ceasefires can emerge from exhaustion, mediator leverage, or funding constraints faster than public commentary anticipates.

Counterweight 43% CatalystMediator-backed draft or security guarantees RiskCombat incentives may still dominate

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Platform
Category
Politics › Russia
Close date
December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules

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