Just over 59 percent of addresses hold Bitcoin bought with an average purchase price below $7,470, putting them “in the money” on unrealized gains even after the cryptocurrency’s months-long and seemingly unrelenting downtrend.
In fact, nearly 40 percent of all BTC in circulation was purchased sub-$4,300, with 2.87 million Bitcoins—almost 16 percent of the circulating supply—having been bought between $931 and $4,298.
Intriguingly, only 2.77 million Bitcoins were bought above $10,252, just above the $10,000-mark—widely considered a critical benchmark for bullish sentiment.
Roughly two percent of holders are currently at break-even cost on their holdings, with BTC ranging between $7,328 and $7,628.
$6,649 seems to be the magic number
39 percent of all addresses are holding Bitcoins at a net loss, with the majority in the red having bought at or above $10,252.
They may not have to wait too long to recoup their losses, however. Further analysis reveals the vast majority of profitless holders will break even when Bitcoin returns to $12,000—86 percent of addresses in the red bought Bitcoin with an average price between $7,628 and $12,073.
These findings may reveal a key support level for the number-one cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Given the majority of Bitcoin addresses are in profit as long as BTC stays above $6,649, sell pressure will not likely become significant until a drop below this level—where a large number of holders may need to liquidate in order to realize their profits or break even.
Granted, Bitcoin futures markets could skew this theory. Leveraged futures offerings are suspected to have dramatically exacerbated recent price declines—extending small drops through key support levels into large, inorganic sell walls as traders’ positions are liquidated for margin calls.