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Nail in the coffin for 2023 rate cut hopes in light of January inflation report

Last week's US data confirmed the year began on a firm footing in expectations from the market of the future fed policy in February.

James Van Straten
Feb. 20, 2023 at 10:59 am UTC
1 min read
Updated: Feb. 20, 2023 at 10:59 am UTC

Quick Take

  • The change in expectations from the market of the future fed policy during February has been significant. The fed funds rate is expected to peak above 5.25% in the year's second half — with a slim to no chance of rate cuts this year.
  • The six-month treasury bill is yielding more than 5% for the first time since the GFC.
  • Retail sales jumped the most since covid due to the introduction of stimulus checks, according to the January inflation report.
  • In addition, the January inflation report showed the pace of declines in good prices is slowing; shelter inflation has yet to be factored in as rent increases still show positive upwards momentum.
  • This is followed by a second consecutive monthly increase of .4% in the core index.
Fed Fund Rate: (Source: CME and Bloomberg)
Fed Fund Rate: (Source: CME and Bloomberg)
US 06MY: (Source: Trading View)
US 06MY: (Source: Trading View)
Core CPI: (Source: BLS)
Core CPI: (Source: BLS)
Analyst View profile
James Van Straten
James Van Straten
Former Lead Analyst CryptoSlate

James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century's paramount invention.

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