Nick Chong · 1 week ago · 2 min read · Insights via Grayscale Investments
Disclaimer: This article contains technical analysis, which is a methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The content presented in this article is the opinion of the author. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Some of the most popular analysts in the crypto space have differing opinions about Bitcoin’s future price action. This technical analysis will examine whether BTC will drop again or if the bull rally will continue.
After a steady upswing from $3,350 to nearly $14,000, Bitcoin retraced to reach a low of $9,080 on July 17. Due to the speed of the correction, many analysts, such as 40-year trading veteran Peter Brandt, warned of a further decline that could trigger an 80 percent correction of the entire “parabolic advance.”
If current parabolic phase is violated, we could expect either an 80% correction of 7-month advance or much smaller correction w/ definition of new parabola w/ shallower slope. $BTC Note formation of possible 2-wk H&S or H&S failure pic.twitter.com/6IF1bHREAv
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 7, 2019
In addition, the Bitcoin Misery Index recently dropped below 67 for the first time since the bull rally started, signaling that the pullback may not be over.
1/ Crypto markets broadly suffered from the rising regulatory concerns on crypto / @Libra_ . $btc price sold off from $14k to $10k. Our @fundstrat 𝗕𝗶𝘁𝗰𝗼𝗶𝗻 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝗲𝗿𝘆 𝗜𝗻𝗱𝗲𝘅 (the BMI) recently dipped below 67, 1st time since 2019 crypto bull rally starts… HOWEVER.. pic.twitter.com/Ql3WkIb1eC
— Ken Xuan (@fundstrat_ken) July 18, 2019
Despite the bearish outlook, crypto trader and CryptoSlate contributor Eric Thies believes that the current retracement should be considered an exhaustion point that could actually help maintain Bitcoin’s healthy bull trend just as the different 30 to 40 percent declines did in the 2015-2017 bull market.
Bull run in 2015-2017 included run-ups, typically followed by a retrace to touch the top of the prior high. These drops ranged from 31-40%, before rinsing/repeating onward.
Looks very similar to what we are seeing now. pic.twitter.com/vd5grw1bVC
— CryptoThies (@KingThies) July 18, 2019
Bitcoin technical analysis
Based on the 1-month chart, Bitcoin remains bullish. As a matter of fact, this cryptocurrency appears to be mimicking its behavior from 2013 and 2017.
Following the peak of $1,177 on Nov. 30, 2013, Bitcoin’s market valuation plummeted 86 percent to reach a low of $164 on Jan. 14, 2015. Two months later, a death cross developed between the 7-month moving average and the 30-month moving average as a direct effect of the major correction that had occurred.
Then, BTC went through a consolidation period that resulted in a 378 percent upswing from the $164 low to $784 on June 18, 2016. By that point, a golden cross had formed between 7-month MA and the 30-month MA and this cryptocurrency reached what could be considered an exhaustion point, since its market valuation dropped 38 percent before continuing the bull trend that lead it to make an all-time high of $19,760 on Dec. 17, 2017.
Similar to what happened between 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin is coming from an 84 percent correction following the $19,760 top. Along the way a death cross between the 7-month MA and the 30-month MA developed and was succeeded by a consolidation period that ended up in a 339 percent breakout. Now, a golden cross also formed and Bitcoin found an exhaustion point that took it down 34 percent, signaling that this cryptocurrency could be poised to resume its bull rally and make new all-time highs, if history indeed repeats itself.
The bullish sentiment can also be perceived on the 1-week chart as Bitcoin continues to trade above its 7-week moving average, which has acted as a strong support level since the rally started in early February, rejecting any moves below it and allowing Bitcoin’s market valuation to bounce to higher highs.
Therefore, for the continuation of the bull trend to be confirmed, it will be ideal if the 7-week MA keeps holding and Bitcoin manages to trade above the 16.18 percent Fibonacci retracement level. But, if the 7-week MA and the 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement level fail to contain BTC, then this cryptocurrency could find some level of support around $8,500 and $7,000 due to the probability of demand around this zone.
Based on the 1-day chart, it seems like the continuation of the bull trend will be confirmed since there appears to be a bull flag forming under this time frame. This is considered a continuation pattern that develops after a strong upward movement, known as the flagpole, and is succeeded by a consolidation period, known as the pennant, that tends to breakout on the direction of the previous trend. Upon the breakout point, the bull pennant predicts a 46 percent target to the upside that was determined by measuring the height of the flagpole and could take Bitcoin to around $16,300.
Nonetheless, a closer look at the pennant on the 12-hour chart indicates that Bitcoin is trading inside a descending parallel channel. Now that BTC bounced from the bottom to the middle of the channel, it could either pull back to the bottom once again or rise up to the top of the channel. Thus, a $1,000 “no-trade” zone can be drawn between $10,080 and $11,080 implying that a move above it will signal a breakout to the top of the channel while a move below it will signal a retrace to the bottom.
In the long-term perspective, everything seems to be pointing out that Bitcoin could soon resume its bull rally and it will be heading to new higher highs despite the corrections that it has had and will continue to have on its way up as it happened in the 2015-2017 bull market. The monthly chart appears to be giving clues that as soon as the correction is over this cryptocurrency will make new all-time highs and the weekly chart confirms this idea as long as BTC remains trading above the 7-week moving average.
The funny thing is… I just pulled up the curve tool on a fresh chart and drew this in one take, without altering the curve at all. This is why parabolas are somewhat ridiculous – they can be redrawn over and over. This one actually looks "good" now. pic.twitter.com/ch2lSEmoHt
— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) July 21, 2019
Fundamentally, Bitcoin also looks very strong since Coinbase recently surpassed 30 million users by adding over 5 million users in the past 10 months. Bakkt will begin testing its Bitcoin futures contracts on July 22, and China upheld Bitcoin’s status as “virtual property” reaffirming that holders will be protected by the country’s legal system in disputes.
Even though in the short-term, Bitcoin could fall back to around $9,000 or even $7,000, the bigger timeframes indicate that the bull market is already in full force. In the meantime, as @BigChonis explained, BTC is in a consolidation phase and the longer it takes to break out of it the more meaningful the next move will be. Sideliners should wait for a clear move outside of the current no-trade zone as a confirmation of the short-term direction of the trend.
The Longer #bitcoin takes to consolidate the Bigger the next move becomes … $BTC is the same price it was exactly a month ago… the next break should happen quicker and larger than the last… pic.twitter.com/fJXC9mG3Rp
— Chonis Trading-⚔️ (@BigChonis) July 22, 2019