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Watch for movements: Bitcoin’s static supply gears up for significant changes Watch for movements: Bitcoin’s static supply gears up for significant changes

Watch for movements: Bitcoin’s static supply gears up for significant changes

Data via Glassnode

The shift coincides with the looming anniversary of FTX's collapse, after which Bitcoin dropped from nearly $20,000 to around $15,500.

Quick Take

The next several weeks are poised for significant movement in the categories of Bitcoinโ€™s Supply Last Active (SLA), which indicates the percentage of circulating Bitcoin supply that has remained static for at least 1, 2, 3, or 5 years.

SLA for 1+ years currently stands around 68.3%, a slight drop from its July high of 69%. This shift coincides with the impending anniversary of the FTX collapse that precipitated Bitcoinโ€™s drop from nearly $20,000 to around $15,500. The expected increase in the SLA of 1+ years may potentially reveal those who capitalized on this dip.

Supply Last Active%
Supply Last Active 1 + Years Ago68.31%
Supply Last Active 2 + Years Ago57.01%
Supply Last Active 3 + Years Ago40.72%
Supply Last Active 5 + Years Ago29.61%

In a historical context, the peak of the last cycle in November 2021, where Bitcoin hit approximately $69,000, is beginning to influence the upward trend in SLA 2+ years ago, reflected in its all-time high of 57%.

Moreover, as Bitcoin began its bull run in September 2020, the SLA 3+ years ago also achieved an all-time high, sitting at 41%. As we move forward, this cohort is anticipated to increase further.

Lastly, the 5+ year SLA cohort, currently at 29.6%, is expected to trend higher. This prediction is based on the Bitcoin price in December 2018, when it dropped from around $6,300 to bottom out at $3,200. It will be intriguing to observe how this cohort, who may have bought during this bottom, responds to a potential price drop.