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Rate cuts potentially off the table for 2023 Rate cuts potentially off the table for 2023

Rate cuts potentially off the table for 2023

The fed funds rate is now expected to be higher for a longer time frame in 2023, as no rate cuts are expected

Quick Take

  • The fed funds rate now implies that rate cuts are off the table for 2023 and are expected to remain higher for a longer time frame in the year.
  • As the year progresses, rate hikes are expected to continue, while rates are expected to hold steady in the second half of 2023.
  • A solid improvement in yesterday’s U.S. PMIs reinforced the need for further policy tightening, particularly with inflation slowing less than expected in the U.S.
  • The S&P composite PMI jumped out of contraction on an absolute basis, showing significant improvement.
Fed Funds Rate Probability: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
Fed Funds Rate Probability: (Source: CME Fed Watch Tool)
S&P Global Composite: (Source: Macroscope)
S&P Global Composite: (Source: Macroscope)