Bitcoin would reach $1.8 million per coin if it matched 2017 bull market run While the title of this insight may seem overly bullish, it’s simply a fact based on the data. However, historical patterns don’t really line up with such a bullish scenario. Across each Bitcoin cycle, the price increase has been around 27% of the last period. Should Bitcoin continue this trend, we may still have cause for optimism, albeit not with satoshi/dollar parity quite yet.
The price increase for each halving cycle appears to diminish significantly over time.
- First Halving (to Second Halving): 10,300% increase
- Second Halving (to Third Halving): 2,800% increase
- Third Halving (to Fourth Halving): 738% increase
Each cycle shows a substantial reduction in the percentage increase. To forecast a trend, let’s analyze the approximate rate of decrease:
- From Halving 1 to Halving 2:
(2800 / 10300) ≈ 27.18%of the previous increase. - From Halving 2 to Halving 3:
(738 / 2800) ≈ 26.36%of the previous increase.
If we continue this diminishing rate, Halving 4 might see an increase of around 26-27% of the previous Halving’s percentage increase:
738 * 0.265 ≈ 195.57%
Estimate for Halving 4: We could estimate an increase of approximately 195% over the halving price. This follows the trend of diminishing returns per cycle.
Such a price increase would take Bitcoin to a peak of around $180,000 this cycle.
For fun, if Bitcoin were to break the diminishing returns pattern and increase by 50% or 100% of the last cycle’s increase, we would see prices of $304,000 and $520,000, respectively.
Should Bitcoin somehow find the vigor of the 2017 bull run, it would rise as high as $1.8 million per coin.
Remember, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Bitcoin is still in its infancy as an asset, and anything could happen next.
Except, in my view, going to zero.
Analyst 
Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Also known as "Akiba," Liam Wright is a reporter, podcast producer, and Editor-in-Chief at CryptoSlate. He believes that decentralized technology has the potential to make widespread positive change.
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Bitcoin, a decentralized currency that defies the sway of central banks or administrators, transacts electronically, circumventing intermediaries via a peer-to-peer network.
