Nick Chong · 1 week ago · 2 min read · Insights via Grayscale Investments
Bitcoin · Ethereum · XRP › Technical Analysis
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP sit at a make-or-break point
Disclaimer: This article contains technical analysis, which is a methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The content presented in this article is the opinion of the author. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Since the beginning of the year, the cryptocurrency market went through a bullish impulse that saw the whole market cap surge nearly 23 percent. The rally took Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP to a pivotal point in their trend. The following technical analysis evaluates where these three cryptocurrencies could go next.
From a macro perspective, Bitcoin’s price action is contained within a descending parallel channel since late June 2019 after peaking at nearly $14,000.
Since then, every time the flagship cryptocurrency plunges to the bottom of the channel, it bounces off to the middle or the top. But, when it surges to the top of the channel, it pulls back to the middle or the bottom.
At the moment, BTC is testing the upper boundary of the multi-month descending parallel channel. A spike in demand around the current price levels could lead to the breakout of such a significant resistance level. Breaking this price hurdle could trigger FOMO (fear of missing out) among investors pushing Bitcoin into higher highs.
Nevertheless, the descending parallel channel could continue holding the pioneer cryptocurrency from a further advance. An increase in the selling pressure behind BTC could allow it to pull back to the middle or the bottom of the channel like it has done it in the last six months.
Based on the TD sequential indicator, there is a higher probability that the bearish outlook will be validated. This technical index presented a quasi-sell signal on Jan. 11 in the form of a green nine candlestick that progressed into a red one candle on BTC’s 1-day chart. Such a bearish formation estimates that Bitcoin may retrace for a one to four candlesticks or begin a new countdown.
It is worth noting that the bearish signal could be jeopardized if the current green two candlestick closes above the previous green one candle.
Due to the significance that the current price level has on Bitcoin’s trend, the area between the 100-day and the 128-day moving average is a reasonable no-trade zone.
Closing below the 100-day moving average could lead to a steeper decline taking BTC to test the 50-day moving average at $7,450. Meanwhile, breaking above the 128-day moving average could signal the beginning of a new uptrend.
The TD sequential indicator also presented a quasi-sell signal on Ethereum’s 1-day chart. Although the bearish signal was given on Jan. 11, it has yet to be confirmed by a red two candlestick trading below a preceding red one candle. ETH’s inability to close below $142 in the past three days suggests that this is a significant support level.
Currently, Ethereum is sitting on top of the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level as well as the 50-day moving average. Both of these levels are preventing this crypto from a further retracement.
Additionally, there is a massive buy wall around $143 on the Malta-based cryptocurrency exchange OKEx, according to the head of Three Arrows Capital Su Zhu. Zhu believes that the demand for Ethereum around the current price level could be a sign of “re-accumulation.”
— Su Zhu (@zhusu) January 12, 2020
Despite the high level of support, an increase in sell orders could push Ethereum down to $134. Meanwhile, a further increase in demand could take it to test the 100-day moving average at $159.
The TD sequential indicator presented a buy signal in the form of a red nine on XRP’s 1-week chart. This technical index estimates that this cryptocurrency could be preparing for an upswing that allows it to reach higher highs. A green two candlestick trading above the current green one candle could validate the bullish outlook, and XRP could begin a new upward countdown.
Based on the 1-day chart, it seems like the 50-day moving average is serving as significant support for XRP. If this support level continues to hold, a spike in the buying pressure behind this crypto could allow it to surge. A bullish impulse may take XRP to test the 100-day or the 200-day moving average, sitting at $0.243 and $0.271, respectively.
Nonetheless, dropping below the 50-day moving average could trigger a correction. The next level of support is provided by the 30-day moving average at $0.199.
Willy Woo, an on-chain analyst and partner at Adaptive Capital, recently stated that Litecoin’s price action could be used as a “confirmation signal” of where Bitcoin is heading next. From a low time frame, the analyst determined that LTC was leading the crypto-market.
Under this premise, a look at LTC’s 1-day chart could indicate the fate of the market. The TD sequential indicator presented a sell signal in the form of a green nine. This technical index estimates that Litecoin could retrace for a one to four candlesticks. This could allow it to look for support around the middle Bollinger band (21-day moving average).
If Woo’s assessment is correct, then a decline in Litecoin’s price could bring the whole market down with it. It is worth noting that if LTC can close above $51.70, the bearish signal given by the TD sequential indicator will be invalidated.