40 more outcomes Listed by current odds
- Pete Buttigieg 4.4% $0.044
- Andy Beshear 2.5% $0.025
- James Talarico 1.8% $0.018
- Ro Khanna 1.8% $0.018
- Jon Stewart 1.7% $0.017
- Mark Kelly 1.7% $0.017
- Rahm Emanuel 1.7% $0.017
- J.B. Pritzker 1.5% $0.015
- Hunter Biden 1.4% $0.014
- Wes Moore 1.3% $0.013
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1.3% $0.013
- Michelle Obama 1.2% $0.012
- Stephen A. Smith 1.1% $0.011
- Cory Booker 1% $0.01
- Mark Cuban 1% $0.01
- Chelsea Clinton 1% $0.01
- Roy Cooper 1% $0.01
- Gretchen Whitmer 0.9% $0.009
- Chris Murphy 0.9% $0.009
- Oprah Winfrey 0.8% $0.008
- Gina Raimondo 0.8% $0.008
- Raphael Warnock 0.8% $0.008
- Barack Obama 0.8% $0.008
- Bernie Sanders 0.8% $0.008
- Liz Cheney 0.8% $0.008
- Zohran Mamdani 0.8% $0.008
- Ruben Gallego 0.8% $0.008
- Jared Polis 0.8% $0.008
- LeBron James 0.8% $0.008
- MrBeast 0.8% $0.008
- Hillary Clinton 0.8% $0.008
- George Clooney 0.7% $0.007
- Tim Walz 0.7% $0.007
- Beto O’Rourke 0.7% $0.007
- Andrew Yang 0.7% $0.007
- John Fetterman 0.7% $0.007
- Kim Kardashian 0.7% $0.007
- Phil Murphy 0.7% $0.007
- Jasmine Crockett 0.7% $0.007
- Graham Platner 0.7% $0.007
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 18, 2026 10:12 am.
What could move the odds
Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Pricing frames the 2028 Democratic race as Newsom-led but still highly fragmented, with no candidate treated as near-consensus nominee.
The claim is less 'Newsom wins' than 'early elite/name-recognition advantages matter while the field remains unresolved years before primaries.'.
What could reprice it
The next major repricing trigger is likely formal 2028 positioning: exploratory committees, fundraising filings, endorsements, or early-state polls.
Because settlement requires winning and accepting the nomination, signals that convert speculation into organized campaign capacity should matter most.
Where the market may be weak
Large headline liquidity can mask thin price discovery across many small outcomes, where celebrity or ineligible names may distort implied field odds.
Multi-outcome structure spreads attention across dozens of contracts; some prices may reflect optionality, memes, or stale bids rather than viable nomination paths.
Counter-signal
The market may underprice late-cycle coalition shifts: Democratic nominees often emerge from primary performance, not early national recognition alone.
Governors, senators, or lesser-known candidates can re-rate quickly after debates, endorsements, fundraising surprises, or early-state wins.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
Probability history
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
-
- Category
- Politics › Global Elections
- Close date
- November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
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