40 more outcomes Listed by current odds
- Pete Buttigieg 4.3% $0.043
- Andy Beshear 2.7% $0.027
- James Talarico 2% $0.02
- Ro Khanna 1.9% $0.019
- Hunter Biden 1.8% $0.018
- Mark Kelly 1.8% $0.018
- Rahm Emanuel 1.8% $0.018
- Jon Stewart 1.7% $0.017
- J.B. Pritzker 1.7% $0.017
- Wes Moore 1.5% $0.015
- Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1.3% $0.013
- Michelle Obama 1.2% $0.012
- Stephen A. Smith 1.1% $0.011
- Cory Booker 1% $0.01
- Mark Cuban 1% $0.01
- Chelsea Clinton 1% $0.01
- Roy Cooper 1% $0.01
- Gretchen Whitmer 0.9% $0.009
- Chris Murphy 0.9% $0.009
- Oprah Winfrey 0.8% $0.008
- Gina Raimondo 0.8% $0.008
- Raphael Warnock 0.8% $0.008
- Barack Obama 0.8% $0.008
- Bernie Sanders 0.8% $0.008
- Liz Cheney 0.8% $0.008
- Zohran Mamdani 0.8% $0.008
- John Fetterman 0.8% $0.008
- Ruben Gallego 0.8% $0.008
- Jared Polis 0.8% $0.008
- LeBron James 0.8% $0.008
- MrBeast 0.8% $0.008
- Hillary Clinton 0.8% $0.008
- George Clooney 0.7% $0.007
- Tim Walz 0.7% $0.007
- Beto O’Rourke 0.7% $0.007
- Andrew Yang 0.7% $0.007
- Kim Kardashian 0.7% $0.007
- Phil Murphy 0.7% $0.007
- Jasmine Crockett 0.7% $0.007
- Graham Platner 0.7% $0.007
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 14, 2026 3:12 pm.
What could move the odds
Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Prices imply Democrats lack a settled heir apparent, with Gavin Newsom the plurality claim but most probability dispersed across alternatives.
The market is pricing a long pre-primary field, not just name recognition; acceptance of the nomination is the resolving event.
What could reprice it
The next durable repricing point is likely candidate commitment signals: exploratory committees, staff hires, donor events, and early-state polling.
Formal FEC activity and DNC calendar decisions can convert speculation into measurable nomination pathways before debates begin.
Where the market may be weak
Despite headline liquidity, a 2028 multi-outcome market can overweight narrative names years before voters, delegates, or ballot access matter.
Resolution is clear, but the horizon is long; stale attention and thin marginal order books can make small moves look more informative than they are.
Counter-signal
The leader may be overpriced if Democrats prioritize electability after 2026 results or if governors, senators, or a late entrant consolidate donors.
Nomination markets often shift when elite endorsements, fundraising, and early-state polls converge, making today’s plurality fragile.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
Probability history
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
-
- Category
- Politics › Global Elections
- Close date
- November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
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