
Insights Macro
Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to jobs data
Stunning market shift: payroll data continues to exceed expectations and U.S. unemployment hits 3.4% — hitting lows of 1969.
James Van Straten / May. 5, 2023 at 2:00 pm UTC
Quick Take
- The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
- Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000.
- The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance.
- This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50


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