Market has started to price in a 10% chance of a 25bps rate hike, due to jobs data

Stunning market shift: payroll data continues to exceed expectations and U.S. unemployment hits 3.4% — hitting lows of 1969.

James Van Straten
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James Van Straten
This article was published 3 years ago. Some details may no longer reflect current market conditions or recent developments. If you spot anything that needs an update, contact us.
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Quick Take

  • The U.S. unemployment rate moves down to 3.4%, the lowest level since 1969.
  • Payroll data came in at 253,000, with an expectancy of 185,000.
  • The market is currently pricing in a pause, but 25bps was not considered before today; now, there is a 10% chance.
  • This would take the fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50
Fed funds: (Source: CME)
Fed funds: (Source: CME)
Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)
Unemployment: (Source: Charlie Biello)
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James Van Straten
James Van Straten
Former Lead Analyst CryptoSlate

James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century's paramount invention.

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