Jobs report fuels speculation of impending interest rate hike

Fed Funds Rate would surpass 5% if FOMC announces 25 basis point rate hike

James Van Straten
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James Van Straten
This article was published 3 years ago. Some details may no longer reflect current market conditions or recent developments. If you spot anything that needs an update, contact us.
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Quick Take

  • On the news of today, job report, and unemployment data, the market is now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bps rate hike.
  • This would take the federal funds rate above 5%.
  • The market now expects a 25bps hike in May, a pause in June, and a 25bps cut in July.
  • However, we have a couple of inflation reports, with CPI on April 12 and PCE on April 28.
  • So we expect the data to change as the month rolls on.
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
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James Van Straten
James Van Straten
Former Lead Analyst CryptoSlate

James fervently appreciates data, technology, and trend-spotting. As a tech and liberty maximalist, he hails Bitcoin as the 21st century's paramount invention.

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