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Jobs report fuels speculation of impending interest rate hike Jobs report fuels speculation of impending interest rate hike

Jobs report fuels speculation of impending interest rate hike

Fed Funds Rate would surpass 5% if FOMC announces 25 basis point rate hike

Quick Take

  • On the news of today, job report, and unemployment data, the market is now pricing in a 70% chance of a 25bps rate hike.
  • This would take the federal funds rate above 5%.
  • The market now expects a 25bps hike in May, a pause in June, and a 25bps cut in July.
  • However, we have a couple of inflation reports, with CPI on April 12 and PCE on April 28.
  • So we expect the data to change as the month rolls on.
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)