After the major surge in mid-December 2018, the market seems to have found an exhaustion point. The retrace gives an opportunity for sideliners to buy in before the next upswing. Although the plunge has been more drastic in altcoins than in Bitcoin, this technical analysis will evaluate whether Cardano, Chainlink and Ravencoin are doomed to continue falling.
After moving between the 16.18 and 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement level for nearly two months, Cardano broke below support and reached the 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement area where it is currently trading at. If this price point is able to hold, then ADA could be preparing to rebound to the 50 or even the 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement zone.
An upswing could indeed be expected now that Cardano has reached the 40.50 percent retracement target given the ascending triangle that was forming on the 3-day chart.
Therefore, in order for this cryptocurrency to go back up to the 50 or the 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement level, the setup trendline must hold and a buy signal in the form of a red nine should be given by the TD Sequential Indicator on the 1-day chart. Since ADA is currently trading on a red seven there could be another two days of bearish momentum before a bullish signal is given by this technical index, which increases the likelihood for a continuation of the downward trend that could take Cardano to the 78.60 percent Fibonacci retracement level or around $0.045. Everything will depend on the price action seen before the green nine is given by the TD Sequential Indicator.
Chainlink recently experienced a significant increase in its market valuation rising from $1.11 to $4.80 in a matter of sixteen days. After Google announced that it was integrating it into its cloud-based services, and Coinbase Pro as well as Coinbase revealed that the token was going to be listed under their platforms, the token saw these outlandish gains.
Following the upswing, 1.4 million LINK tokens were transferred from Chainlink’s “development wallet” into Binance leading many analysts in the cryptocurrency community to believe that the company was preparing for a major sell out, which as detailed in their whitepaper could have been to cover expansion costs and operating expenses.
Regardless of the actual reason behind the 1.4 million LINK tokens transferred, this cryptocurrency has corrected more than 50 percent from the high of $4.80 on June 29 and several indicators could suggest that it is trading at a pivotal point where it could continue declining or regain some of the value that it has lost.
On the 1-week chart, for instance, the TD Sequential Indicator gave a sell signal in the form of a green nine candlestick forecasting a pullback that could last for 1 to 4 weeks before the continuation of the bullish trend. Now that LINK has corrected for 2 weeks, it reached the 7-week moving average, which is currently holding it from a further drop.
If this moving average is not able to contain the price of Chainlink, then it could try to find support around the 30 and 50-week moving averages that are sitting between $1.2 and $0.9.
Nonetheless, the support given by the 7-week moving average could likely hold LINK from further depreciation and act as a rebound zone since it seems like a bull flag is developing in the 3-day chart. This is considered a continuation pattern that forms after a strong upward movement, known as the flagpole, and is preceded by a consolidation period, known as the flag. The bull flag predicts a 64 percent target to the upside that was determined by measuring the height of the flagpole.
If Chainlink is able to move above the 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement level the bullish outlook seen on the 3-day chart will be validated and LINK could be on its way to reach new all-time highs, but breaking below the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level could indicate that the support given by the 7-week moving average is vanishing and this cryptocurrency will be doomed for a further depreciation.
Thus, the price action between the 50 and the 38.20 percent Fibonacci retracement level could be seen as a no trade zone and investors should wait for a break of support or resistance before entering a trade.
Ravencoin broke below the 7-week moving average around 3 weeks ago and since then it has dropped nearly 40 percent. Now, this cryptocurrency could be finding some level of support around the 30-week moving average based on the 1-week chart.
Along the same lines, the parallel channel that developed since mid-March on the 3-day chart shows that its bottom could be containing the price of RVN. If the channel is able to hold, then a rebound to the middle or the top of the channel could be expected.
However, moving below the parallel channel could accelerate the selling pressure behind this cryptocurrency pushing its price further down.
The Fibonacci retracement levels on the 1-day chart could be used to determined whether the parallel channel seen in the 3-day chart will continue suppressing Ravencoin. At the moment, it seems like a move below the 61.80 percent Fibonacci retracement level could be catastrophic for RVN since the next level of support is sitting around $0.025. On the other hand, an open candlestick above the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement zone could be hinting that it will at least try to reach the middle line of the parallel channel.
Despite the significant correction that most of the coins analyzed have seen in the past few weeks, they all seem to be holding at pivotal points that could allow them to regain some of the value they have lost or increase the selling pressure behind them. Since this seems to be the case for Cardano, Chainlink and Ravencoin, investors should wait for a break of support or resistance before entering a trade.
The bearish sentiment seen in most of the altcoins can also be seen in Bitcoin which according to 40-years trading veteran Peter Brandt it could be at the cusp of violating the “parabolic advance” that started in December 2018. A break below the parabolic phase could trigger an 80 percent drop from current levels in BTC, taking the entire cryptocurrency market down with it.
Posted In: Altcoins, Technical Analysis, Trading
If current parabolic phase is violated, we could expect either an 80% correction of 7-month advance or much smaller correction w/ definition of new parabola w/ shallower slope. $BTC Note formation of possible 2-wk H&S or H&S failure pic.twitter.com/6IF1bHREAv
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 7, 2019