Nick Chong · 2 hours ago · 2 min read
Ethereum · Litecoin · XRP › Technical Analysis
After the recent drop is Ethereum, XRP and Litecoin due for a rebound?
Disclaimer: This article contains technical analysis, which is a methodology for forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The content presented in this article is the opinion of the author. None of the information you read on CryptoSlate should be taken as investment advice. Buying and trading cryptocurrencies should be considered a high-risk activity. Please do your own diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
40-years trading veteran Peter Brandt stated that if Bitcoin continues retracing it could violate the “parabolic phase” that started in December 2018 and fall up to 80 percent from current levels, taking Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin down with it.
If current parabolic phase is violated, we could expect either an 80% correction of 7-month advance or much smaller correction w/ definition of new parabola w/ shallower slope. $BTC Note formation of possible 2-wk H&S or H&S failure pic.twitter.com/6IF1bHREAv
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 7, 2019
Even though many investors have seen Bitcoin rise while waiting for altcoins to follow through, an 80 percent correction in BTC could precipitate a massive pullback of the entire cryptocurrency market. At the moment, it is too early to tell if such a correction is possible, but this technical analysis will evaluate, based on the current market conditions, whether Ethereum, XRP, and Litecoin could be due for a further drop or instead for a rebound.
The TD Sequential Indicator gave a sell signal in the form of a green nine predicting a one to four week correction that could take Ethereum down to test the 50-week moving average, which is currently sitting around $190 since the significant level of support that the 150-week moving average was providing has been violated.
Now that ETH retraced and tried to break the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement zone, a reversal candlestick is forming on the 3-day chart that could take this cryptocurrency to rebound up to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level.
Although the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement seems to be acting as a barrier due to the high concentration of demand around it, failing to hold the price of Ethereum could lead to a drop down to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement.
On the 1-day chart, it seems like the 50 percent Fibonacci retracement will actually be able to contain the price of Ethereum from a further decline since the ascending parallel channel that can be seen under this timeframe could be signaling that a rebound could soon come to the middle of the channel, which is where the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement is. So, if the ascending channel that has been forming since mid-December 2018 is able to continue holding the price of ETH, its bottom could act as a rebound zone marking the end of the correction, and possibly taking this cryptocurrency up to the middle of the channel or higher highs.
The selling pressure behind XRP continues to increase as it recently broke a major support point that was holding its market valuation since mid-May. Now that this cryptocurrency broke below the $0.38 support level and it has reached $0.30, which is the lowest it has been trading since the bull run that started in mid-December 2018, investors should pay close attention to it.
The $0.30 support level represents a pivot point for XRP because it will be the third time since almost a year ago that this cryptocurrency tested this zone. Thus, if this price barrier is able to hold once again, XRP could likely form a triple bottom pattern that could give investors the opportunity to enter a bullish position.
According to Eric Thies, a cryptocurrency enthusiast and self-taught analyst, this scenario is similar to what happened before XRP’s bull run in 2017 and it could be signaling a major breakout based on historical data.
— Parabolic Thies (@KingThies) July 11, 2019
On the other hand, Peter Brand believes that if Bitcoin continues its short-term bearish outlook, then XRP will most likely drop down to $0.16, but as shown in the 1-week chart it will first have to break below the $0.23 support level.
— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) July 11, 2019
Since the high of $147 on June 22, Litecoin has experienced a sharp decline in its market valuation. So far, this cryptocurrency has retraced nearly 42 percent and it seems like there are more legs to go down.
For @BigChonis, the end of Litecoin’s bull run started with a green nine per the TD Sequential Indicator, which is the same way it began but in the form of a red nine based on this technical index.
— Chonis Trading-⚔️ (@BigChonis) July 11, 2019
Adding to the bearishness, the evening doji star candlestick pattern that developed 2 weeks ago seems to be in full effect. This is a bearish reversal pattern that signaled that Litecoin could go down to $70 upon the break of the $115 hurdle point.
Now that LTC has actually broken below the $115 barrier, it reached the $93.5 support zone which seems to be holding its price from a further drop.
The fact that Litecoin broke below the ascending parallel channel on the 3-day chart where it was trading since mid-December 2018 could be a clear sign that the $93.5 support level will not hold for long. Due to the longevity of this parallel channel, the move below it could has been accelerating the selling pressure which could result in a further correction.
These all seems to point out that history is repeating itself and LTC could fall another 25 percent to try to test the support given by the 200-day moving average on the 1-day chart just as it did in 2015 prior the halving—a fixed event that occurs every four years after 840,000 blocks are mined, which reduces the mining reward by 50 percent. Therefore, a drop down to $70 could indeed be possible, representing a 49 percent correction from the recent high of $147.
Under the current market conditions it seems like while Ethereum and XRP are at a pivot point where they could bounce off, Litecoin could be doomed to continue pulling back from the major upswing that it experienced since the beginning of the year.
Ethereum could be at the cusp of rebounding to the $256 resistance level if the current support level is able to hold, but in the case it does not it could continue depreciating value to around $190 or lower.
Along the same lines, XRP has reached the December 2018 low of $0.30, which poses a lot of significance to investors who should watch out for this level as it will determine whether a 50 percent correction or the beginning of a new bull run will materialize.
Finally, Litecoin is just 20 days away from its block reduction event and everything seems to be pointing out that a similar scenario to what happened in 2015 will occur now and this cryptocurrency will now pull back to the 200-day moving average that is currently sitting around $70.
It is worth noting that retracements are normal during bull markets after major upswings and they help ensure that the bull trend is healthy. In the most recent bull market, for instance, Bitcoin ran up for more than two years from $198 on Aug. 25, 2015 to $19,760 on Dec. 17, 2018 and experienced eight significant corrections during this time without affecting its long-term trend.