Tech titans and seasonal trends: A deeper look into S&P 500 performance

S&P 500's seasonal peaks: A recurring pattern around recessions?

This article was published 3 years ago. Some details may no longer reflect current market conditions or recent developments. If you spot anything that needs an update, contact us.

Quick Take

According to the global markets newsletter, the Kobessi Letter, the year-to-date performance of the S&P 500 shows a striking disparity of the underlying assets behind its impressive gain of 15%.

Seven tech giants – Meta (Facebook), Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Tesla, and Nvidia – are collectively up by a staggering 58%. In contrast, the remaining 493 companies listed on the index have seen only a modest increase of 4% in the same period.

S&P: (Source: Kobessi Letter)
S&P: (Source: Kobessi Letter)

Historical Market Trends: A Seasonal Pattern?

A notable pattern emerges when exploring the historical performance of the S&P 500 (SPX) around the last three recessions. Each time, the SPX peaked just after the summer months while the fed started to cut rates. Specifically:

  • The 2000 peak occurred in August.
  • The 2007 peak took place in October.
  • The 2018 peak happened in September.

This trend prompts the question: Will this post-summer peak pattern persist in future recessions? As always, while historical patterns can provide insight, they should not be considered a guaranteed prediction of future performance.

S&P: (Source: TV)
S&P: (Source: TV)