Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
Plan your retirement using Base, Bull, and Bear Bitcoin scenarios. Toggle macro events to stress‑test outcomes. All numbers are estimates, you control the assumptions.
Inputs
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Macro and Bitcoin events, adjust scenarios
50‑year horizon model
Model notes and anchors
This calculator blends a transparent price-path model with macro toggles and two retirement-spending methods. Everything below is editable and designed to be audit‑friendly.
Price path formula
- Anchor bands at 2028, 2033, 2040, 2050, 2075 for Base, Bull, and Bear represent directional midpoints grounded in broadly discussed scenarios (ETF adoption, regulatory clarity, reserve diversification, miner economics).
- Log interpolation between anchors: we compute the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between adjacent anchors and project forward to your retirement year.CAGR = (Pt2 / Pt1)1/(t2−t1) − 1; Pret = Pt1 · (1 + CAGR)(ret−t1)
- Macro multipliers (checkboxes) apply multiplicative adjustments per scenario. Example: if Base has +10% from ETF flows and −15% from tight liquidity, net multiplier = 1.10 × 0.85 = 0.935.
Current anchors
- 2028: Base $225k, Bull $450k, Bear $115k
- 2033: Base $425k, Bull $1.05M, Bear $185k
- 2040: Base $800k, Bull $3.25M, Bear $350k
- 2050: Base $1.9M, Bull $10M, Bear $650k
- 2075: Base $3M, Bull $30M, Bear $550k
Macro toggle logic
- Strong ETF flows: raises Base/Bull more than Bear to reflect persistent, regulated demand funnels.
- Regulatory clarity: improves portfolio inclusion, narrows left‑tail risk.
- Sovereign/SWF reserves: symbolic but powerful adoption, especially for Bull.
- Miner‑friendly energy: lowers political/opex risk as block rewards decline.
- Risk‑on liquidity: positive correlation with broader risk assets.
- Tight liquidity, adverse regulation, protocol incidents, recession shocks reduce levels, especially Bear.
Portfolio & spending math
- BTC at retirement = BTCnow + (Annual BTC purchases × Years to retirement).
- Portfolio at retirement = BTCret × Priceret, scenario.
- Equal‑slice spending (nominal) = Portfolio / Years in retirement. “Today’s dollars” divides by inflation factor ( (1 + i)years to retirement ).
- SWR spending (first year) = Portfolio × safe withdrawal rate. “Today’s dollars” again divide by the inflation factor.
- SWR and equal‑slice are planning heuristics, not guarantees. Markets, taxes, and sequence risk matter.
Sources & further reading
- Bitcoin issuance & 21M cap: Unchained: The 21M supply in code · Bitcoin Magazine: Halving primer.
- US spot ETF approvals (Jan 10, 2024): SEC Chair statement · CRS explainer (PDF).
- Global ETFs: Reuters: HK initial approvals · FT: HK launches spot crypto ETFs.
- EU MiCA timeline: MiCA Papers: implementation dates · Hogan Lovells overview.
- Mining, grids, flexible demand: cPower: miners as flexible load · Duke study summary.
- Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): Bengen (1994) PDF.
- On stock‑to‑flow (S2F) limits: Emerald: dissecting S2F · MDPI survey.
- ETF flows context: BlackRock IBIT facts · CryptoSlate/Bloomberg on 2024 flows.
This tool is for scenario planning; it is not investment advice. Edit anchors and multipliers to reflect your house view.
