Bitcoin Retirement Calculator
How much Bitcoin could cover your retirement? Estimate your BTC target from your spending, timeline and price assumptions.
Compare Base, Bull, Bear and your own price scenarios.
Your retirement scenario ·
Illustrative scenariosSee your BTC target
Enter your details, then select Calculate.
Target at retirement
- Projected holdings
Compare price scenarios
| Scenario | Assumed BTC price | BTC needed | Your position |
|---|
How this was calculated
- Annual spending at retirement
- Starting withdrawal rate
- Portfolio target
The portfolio target is first-year spending divided by the starting withdrawal rate. Dividing that target by each assumed BTC price gives the BTC needed. See methodology and assumptions.
BTC needed versus assumed BTC price
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Uses your dollar target; the dot marks the selected BTC price and required Bitcoin amount.
BTC accumulation to retirement
Uses your planned BTC additions; the dashed line marks the fixed BTC target at retirement.
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How Much Bitcoin Do You Need to Retire?
Start with your spending. Adjust for inflation. Convert the dollar target to Bitcoin.
Worked example · Age 35 to 65 · 2026–2056
From spending to a dollar target
Spending today
$48,000 / year
30 years · 2.5% inflation
Spending at retirement
$100,683 / year
Divide by a 4% starting withdrawal rate
Retirement portfolio target
$2.52M in 2056 dollars
The same target. Different BTC prices.
BTC needed = dollar target ÷ assumed BTC price
| Hypothetical BTC price at retirement | BTC needed |
|---|---|
| $150,000 per BTC | 16.78 BTC |
| $250,000 per BTC | 10.07 BTC |
| $500,000 per BTC | 5.03 BTC |
Methodology and assumptions
Projecting your holdingsFormula and planning horizon
Starts in 2026 · Up to 50 years · Compared with your BTC target
BTC additions stay fixed each year; their dollar cost changes with price.
Price assumptionsFive model anchors
| Year | Base | Bull | Bear |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2028 | $225K | $450K | $115K |
| 2033 | $425K | $1.05M | $185K |
| 2040 | $800K | $3.25M | $350K |
| 2050 | $1.9M | $10M | $650K |
| 2075 | $3M | $30M | $550K |
- Model paths
- Constant compound growth between anchors; held flat after 2075.
- Your custom price
- Uses the retirement price you enter.
- Macro adjustments
- Compound only on future model prices.
- Retiring now
- Uses the assumed starting BTC price.
Limits of this estimateTaxes, fees and retirement returns
- Taxes
- Withdrawal taxes aren’t included.
- Fees
- Provider, custody and trading fees aren’t deducted.
- Retirement returns
- No drawdown or sequence-of-returns model.