After breaking $6,000, Bitcoin passed through another major resistance zone between $6,100 and $6,450. Altcoins, however, are not performing as well and Bitcoin’s dominance has increased to 59.26% at the time of press.
Bitcoin’s bullish momentum has shaken off a lot of bears out of the market. Tyler Jenks, a 40-years trading veteran, lost a 1 BTC bet he made on Mar. 4, 2019, against a technical analyst, who goes by the pseudonym fil₿fil₿. Jenks bet that bitcoin would trade below $1,500 before hitting $6,500.
To be clear this bet is:
If bitcoin trades > $6500 and does not trade below $1500 in advance of that (from today), I win the bet.
If bitcoin trades < $1500 and does not trade above $6500 in advance of that (from today), Leah and lucid invest win.
Exchange basis: Bitstamp.
— fil₿fil₿ (@filbfilb) March 5, 2019
Other analysts and influencers were able to spot what was happening to the market valuation of bitcoin as it started to leave altcoins behind.
Jimmy Song, a Bitcoin Core developer, was able to see BTC diverge from all of the other cryptocurrencies as early as Apr. 23, 2019.
This is the biggest evidence that the bear market is over. There's been a small, but real and unmistakable decoupling this past breakout. pic.twitter.com/7qZ0mWsVq3
— Jimmy Song (송재준) (@jimmysong) April 23, 2019
Along the same lines, max ke, the host of the Keiser Report, noticed that bitcoin was “breaking away from the pack” on May 4, 2019.
— Max Keiser, tweet poet. (@maxkeiser) May 4, 2019
As early as Apr. 9, 2019, Lingham was making the argument that the market was based upon sentiment and not fundamentals since every time BTC rose the rest of the crypto market followed through without any deep-rooted reason. Lingham stated that the main indicator for a rational bull market will be set by bitcoin decoupling from other crypto assets.
The key indicator for the start of a sustainable bull run is likely a decoupling of asset values from Bitcoin (i.e. Bitcoin’s strength weakens other networks or vice versa). Anything else is just speculation again (maybe we need another bubble to learn more lessons? 😉😂)…
— Vinny Lingham (@VinnyLingham) April 10, 2019
Since May 6, 2019, bitcoin has consistently decoupled from the market compared to the top five altcoins by market capitalization. The pioneer cryptocurrency has had a steady increase in its market valuation leaving the other cryptocurrencies behind. A bullish impulse has been able to push BTC up more than 20 percent and easily break through the $6,450 resistance level.
At the same time, the top five cryptocurrencies have been staggered within a price range without experiencing a bull run similar to bitcoin.
Ethereum quickly rose 13 percent to then dropped 10 percent by May 8 and now has been trading within a $10 range between $166 and $176
XRP has been making new lows and now seems to be consolidating between $0.305 and $0.29.
Bitcoin Cash Price
Bitcoin Cash has been moving within a $17-range between $276 and $293.
Although Litecoin has been making new highs since May 6, LTC’s trading patterns have diverged from the rest of the market. Out of the top five altcoins, LTC could be the one that decoupled first from bitcoin. After reaching a high of $99.90 on Apr. 3, it has seen a downward correction.
EOS seems to be consolidating between $4.69 and $4.95, without any major move.
Avi Felman, a technical analyst, believes that altcoins in fact are not dying and the current conditions are just part of the market cycle. Felman stated that during a bull market, altcoin prices increase dramatically but are often followed by long periods of indecision.
Felman suggests that the best opportunity to accumulate is given during those times where it seems like the lower market cap cryptos are “bleeding.” Although the exact time when altcoins are supposed to rise cannot be calculated, it certainly happens when no one expects it.
6/ It’s difficult to time exactly when “alt-season” will appear, but know that the cycles are generally longer than expected and happen more swiftly than expected. On the chart below, BTC dominance gained for a solid 6 months before being wiped out in the span of 3 weeks. pic.twitter.com/BZeoCpnYqA
— Avi Felman (@AviFelman) May 10, 2019
The Last Bull Market
The most recent data adds to the probability that Bitcoin tends to lead the market and sometimes it takes a greater period of time for altcoins to follow.
Bitcoin’s most recent bull market started on Sep. 21, 2015, while Ethereum’s bull run started on Dec. 28, 2016. The XRP and Litecoin bull runs began between Mar. and Apr. of 2017 while Bitcoin Cash and EOS on Oct. of the same year.
Moreover, the end of the bull market for Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin was around Dec. 2017 while for ETH and XRP was in January 2018.
There is no metric that will predict when the next “alt season” would start, but as Felman said, “it’s generally [better] to hold/accumulate altcoins [during periods of uncertainty.]”