Bitcoin’s historical performance: September dips and year-end rallies

Volatility is one of the crypto market’s defining characteristics. While a myriad of different factors causes it, it’s usually not arbitrary. It has historically followed specific patterns, which, when studied, can provide insight into future price movements.

Historically, Bitcoin has exhibited a cyclical performance, with specific months and quarters consistently showing stronger or weaker returns.

For example, data from 2013 to 2024 shows that Bitcoin typically underperforms in September, with average returns in that month coming in at -4.89%, making it one of the weakest months of the year. A recovery often follows this dip in performance in Q4, where Bitcoin’s returns have historically been strong. Q4’s average return of +88.84% suggests that Bitcoin usually recovers from the September slump, leading to positive quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth by year’s end.

In this report, CryptoSlate will dive deep into Bitcoin’s historical monthly and quarterly returns, focusing on the period between 2013 and 2024 to assess the likelihood of a similar pattern unfolding in 2024.

Specifically, we’ll analyze Bitcoin’s historical tendency to experience a September dip followed by a Q4 recovery. We can better understand how seasonality and macroeconomic factors influence Bitcoin’s price action in these critical months by examining past performance.

Although each market cycle is unique, specific trends—such as Bitcoin’s seasonal volatility—tend to repeat. This repetition can make historical analysis helpful in predicting the likelihood of particular market movements.

Seasonal trends, like the September dip and the Q4 rebound, have been observed across multiple years, making them a valuable reference for market participants anticipating Bitcoin’s next move. Understanding these patterns is particularly important as we approach the final months of 2024.