The 2019 Litecoin halving has concluded. The halving is a fixed event that occurs every four years after 840,000 blocks are mined, reducing block rewards by 50 percent. As the time approaches, many investors wonder what would happen to LTC’s price. This technical analysis intends to determine the direction that Litecoin will take in the short-term.
Litecoin Technical Analysis
Following the recent 48 percent correction that Litecoin went through that took its price from a yearly high of to $147 to $76, an Adam and Eve double bottom pattern seems to be developing on the 1-day chart. This is considered a bullish reversal formation that occurred after the price of LTC dropped to form a V-shaped valley, rose, and then pulled back again to form the current wider and more rounded valley near the price of the first one.
If volume starts picking up and Litecoin is able to break above $102, it could be an indication that the Adam and Eve double bottom pattern has been validated and LTC could be targeting $120. However, a drop below $83 will invalidate this pattern and could be taken as a sign that LTC is poised to make lower lows.
As a result, the Bollinger bands on the 12-hour chart could help identify whether LTC will be able to break above $102 to validate the Adam and Eve double bottom pattern or if it will drop below $83 to invalidate it. This technical index appears to be squeezing under indicating that LTC has entered a consolidation phase, so the trading range between $101 and $86 could be taken as a “no-trade” zone. Breaking out of this trading range will determine where this cryptocurrency is heading next, given that squeezes are typically followed by periods of high volatility.
A move above $101 will increase the probability for an impulse that takes LTC up to $120, validating the Adam and Eve double bottom pattern seen on the 1-day chart. Nonetheless, if LTC breaks below $86 it could signal a continuation of the bearish trend that began June 22 after it reached a yearly high of $147.
The 4-hour chart tells a similar story—basically, warning that the wiser thing to do at the moment is to wait for confirmation before entering a bullish or bearish trade. Under this time frame, Litecoin is trading above the 100 and 50-four-hour moving average, which could both act as support containing the price of this cryptocurrency from a further drop. On the other hand, the 200-four-hour moving average could act as resistance preventing the LTC from a higher impulse. Thus, a break below or above these moving averages that are acting as support and resistance will confirm the direction of the trend.
It is worth noting that the moving average convergence divergence (MACD), which is commonly used to follow the path of a trend and calculate its momentum, could be about to experience a bullish cross between the 12-four-hour exponential moving average and the 26-four-hour exponential moving average indicating that an upward move is likely to come.
The last time the 12-four-hour EMA moved above the 26-four-hour was at around July 28, which resulted in a 21 percent upswing that lasted 4 days.
The Litecoin halving reduces the reward to miners from 25 to 12.5 LTC. Based on this event, a spike in volatility could be expected to occur within the next few hours. Thus, it will be wiser to wait for confirmation before entering any trade having in mind that a break above $101 could take LTC up to $120 while a move below $86 could signal lower lows.
Litecoin inventor Charlie Lee remarked in a tweet that since the halving, 12 blocks have been found in 17 minutes, implying that miners are not shutting off their hashrate.
Since the halving, 12 blocks have been found in 17 minutes.
Seems like miners have not shut off their hashrate at all. Instead, we are mining at a rate of a block every 1.4 minutes on average, which is much faster than the expected 2.5 minutes.
Litecoin network is healthy! pic.twitter.com/xvgefqIPtP
— Charlie Lee [LTC⚡] (@SatoshiLite) August 5, 2019
The next Litecoin halving is scheduled for Aug. 2, 2023, and will reduce the reward from 12.5 to 6.25 LTC. For more information on the halving, watch the video below.