"Recent fluctuations in U.S. Treasury yields have set alarm bells ringing in financial circles. The spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yields, a historically reliable predictor of economic downturns, is displaying unnerving signs. This indicator has accurately foreshadowed significant economic recessions throughout history, including the 2007-2008 financial crisis. As of September 10th, this spread has fallen to a worrying -1.26%, a figure that has caught the attention of market analysts and investors worldwide. But what does the Federal Reserve's recession probability model say about this...?"
U.S. Treasury yield spread dips to historic lows signaling economic caution U.S. Treasury yield spread dips to historic lows signaling economic caution
Investor confidence dwindles as treasury yield spread dives.
3 min read
Updated: Sep. 14, 2023 at 5:34 pm UTC
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