Arthur Hayes gives his timeline for the next crypto ‘mega upcycle’
The former BitMEX CEO expects a melt up between now and 2026, followed by an economic collapse.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes expects a risk-on, crypto bull market between now and 2026.
Crypto mega up-cycle
Speaking to New York Magazine (NYM,) Hayes discussed his early career at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong, the founding of BitMEX, and his indictment by the Department of Justice, among other topics.
His take on the market and what’s to come was particularly interesting. The former BitMEX CEO said, “every central bank will be fixing the price of their government bonds within the next 12 to 18 months.”
This event will trigger “the next mega-upcycle” for risk-on assets, which he predicts will end by 2026. At which point will come an economic collapse on the same scale as the Great Depression of the 1930s.
“And that’s going to lead the next mega-upcycle in all risk assets and then we’re going to have a generational collapse. And that’s my view.”
Rather than dwell on the bleakness of his last statement, Hayes spoke about making the most of the coming boom by timing his switches between different seasons to maximize gains.
“I’ll invest in deep tech and crypto that’s doing decentralization and actually living the vision of Satoshi’s white paper. And I’ll invest in complete shitcoins. Because I think I can time the market and buy a narrative and sell when the narrative is topped out.”
In May 2022, Hayes pleaded guilty to violating the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act. He paid a $10 million fine and was subject to six months of house arrest, which he served from a Miami apartment that overlooked Biscayne Bay.
Despite supposedly having restrictions on his movement, Hayes disclosed that he could exercise outdoors, attend a nearby WeWork office, and was occasionally allowed out for dinners.
Quoting various industry figures, including Nic Carter, the co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, NYM pointed out that, unlike Sam Bankman-Fried, Hayes was never accused of stealing, lying, or operating a scam business.
“He didn’t follow rules that some people say shouldn’t exist in the first place.”
Hayes and fellow co-founders Samuel Reed and Ben Delo resigned from their positions in October 2020. At the time, BitMEX was among the top derivative exchanges by volume but has slipped significantly due to what happened.
Today’s 24-hour volume was $373.86 million, a fraction of Binance’s $38.89 billion and, strangly, less than FTX’s $587.91 million.
Hayes said he has no plans to return as the company’s CEO but retains a board member position. Some say, behind the scenes, he remains in control.