Whale sheds $4M in Trump win-related bets on Polymarket amid elections uncertainty News ▸ US ▸ Polymarket ▸ Election 2024
Whale sheds $4M in Trump win-related bets on Polymarket amid elections uncertainty
On-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence highlighted that the selling activity started right after known trader GCR advised caution.
1 min read
Updated: Nov. 13, 2024 at 11:17 pm UTC
Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.
A prediction market Polymarket user sold nearly $4 million in bets related to former US President Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 elections in the past 24 hours.
The investor had accumulated over $15.3 million in trading volume across 24 different markets.
On-chain data revealed that the “whale” identified as “larpas” started shedding positions around 4 P.M. UTC. According to Polymarket activity history, most of the bets were related to a Trump win and Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss.
Trump’s odds affected
The whale activity affected Trump’s odds on the platform, causing them to fall to 56.2% from 60.6% as the positions were closed. However, Trump’s odds recovered to 58% as of press time.
Notably, on-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence pointed out that the selling started one minute after known trader GCR suggested users exit election-related polls until Nov. 5. He mentioned the 2000 US presidential elections, which were decided by “a mere 537 votes,” cautioning traders not to push their luck.
Galaxy said its data on 17 different election venues revealed that Trump’s odds of winning fell in 9 of them. Nevertheless, the Republican representative still wins on 14 predictions, comprising proprietary models, prediction markets, and aggregators.
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Author 
Gino Matos
Gino Matos is a law school graduate and a seasoned journalist with six years of experience in the crypto industry. His expertise primarily focuses on the Brazilian blockchain ecosystem and developments in decentralized finance (DeFi).
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Polymarket
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that enables users to bet on world events using cryptocurrency.
Galaxy Digital
Galaxy (TSX: GLXY) is a digital asset and blockchain leader providing access to the growing digital economy.
Donald John Trump was born on June 14, 1946, in Queens, New York City.
Kamala Devi Harris (born October 20, 1964) is an American politician and attorney serving as the 49th Vice President of the United States.