Depicting Powell’s speech: Higher for longer

Dot plot projections suggest two further 25bps rate hikes in 2023

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Quick Take

  • The Fed was somewhat clear with their projections suggesting two further 25 bps rate hikes this year.
  • However, the market is currently pricing in one 25bps hike in July and then holding for the remainder of the year.
  • A chart created by hedge fund project manager, Super_Macro shows the Summary of Economic Projections, most notably a large upward revision to expected growth this year but a downward revision to unemployment.
  • Super Macro further says that 50% of the eighteen officials projected that the fed funds rate would end this year at 5.625%.
Summary of economic projections: (Source: Macroscope)
Summary of economic projections: (Source: Macroscope)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)