S&P 500 index, Bitcoin show further signs of decoupling as tech stocks prop up index

Roughly 93% of the 7% increase in the S&P 500 has been driven by seven tech stocks in 2023

This article was published 3 years ago. Some details may no longer reflect current market conditions or recent developments. If you spot anything that needs an update, contact us.
Make preferred on Google logo

Quick Take

S&P 500 faces headwinds

  • The S&P is roughly up 7% in 2023, but most of the gains have come from seven tech stocks, which coincidentally have the largest market cap in the index.
  • While these stocks have incredibly elevated PE ratios, high rates and a lack of stimulus will provide headwinds for these stocks and S&P 500 as an index. As Q1 earnings season approaches.
  • While the S&P 500 is starting to de-correlate further from Bitcoin, roughly at a 50% correlation. At the same time, the Nasdaq is down to a 42% correlation with Bitcoin.
S&P: (Source: MacroScope)
S&P: (Source: MacroScope)
Correlation: (Source: Trading View)
Correlation: (Source: Trading View)

GBTC

  • The GBTC discount continues to narrow, as the discount to NAV is below 38%, while it was as high as 50% in Q4 of 2022.
  • GBTC is up 117% year to date, outperforming Bitcoin, which has just surpassed $30,000.
  • CryptoSlate did an extensive market report on the GBTC trade that had further implications for the crypto industry.
GBTC: (Source: TradingView)
GBTC: (Source: TradingView)