Bitcoin Retirement Calculator

Plan your retirement using Base, Bull, and Bear Bitcoin scenarios. Toggle macro events to stress‑test outcomes. All numbers are estimates, you control the assumptions.

Inputs
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Macro and Bitcoin events, adjust scenarios
50‑year horizon model
Model notes and anchors

This calculator blends a transparent price-path model with macro toggles and two retirement-spending methods. Everything below is editable and designed to be audit‑friendly.

Price path formula

  • Anchor bands at 2028, 2033, 2040, 2050, 2075 for Base, Bull, and Bear represent directional midpoints grounded in broadly discussed scenarios (ETF adoption, regulatory clarity, reserve diversification, miner economics).
  • Log interpolation between anchors: we compute the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between adjacent anchors and project forward to your retirement year.
    CAGR = (Pt2 / Pt1)1/(t2−t1) − 1;   Pret = Pt1 · (1 + CAGR)(ret−t1)
  • Macro multipliers (checkboxes) apply multiplicative adjustments per scenario. Example: if Base has +10% from ETF flows and −15% from tight liquidity, net multiplier = 1.10 × 0.85 = 0.935.

Current anchors

  • 2028: Base $225k, Bull $450k, Bear $115k
  • 2033: Base $425k, Bull $1.05M, Bear $185k
  • 2040: Base $800k, Bull $3.25M, Bear $350k
  • 2050: Base $1.9M, Bull $10M, Bear $650k
  • 2075: Base $3M, Bull $30M, Bear $550k

Macro toggle logic

  • Strong ETF flows: raises Base/Bull more than Bear to reflect persistent, regulated demand funnels.
  • Regulatory clarity: improves portfolio inclusion, narrows left‑tail risk.
  • Sovereign/SWF reserves: symbolic but powerful adoption, especially for Bull.
  • Miner‑friendly energy: lowers political/opex risk as block rewards decline.
  • Risk‑on liquidity: positive correlation with broader risk assets.
  • Tight liquidity, adverse regulation, protocol incidents, recession shocks reduce levels, especially Bear.

Portfolio & spending math

  • BTC at retirement = BTCnow + (Annual BTC purchases × Years to retirement).
  • Portfolio at retirement = BTCret × Priceret, scenario.
  • Equal‑slice spending (nominal) = Portfolio / Years in retirement. “Today’s dollars” divides by inflation factor ( (1 + i)years to retirement ).
  • SWR spending (first year) = Portfolio × safe withdrawal rate. “Today’s dollars” again divide by the inflation factor.
  • SWR and equal‑slice are planning heuristics, not guarantees. Markets, taxes, and sequence risk matter.

Sources & further reading

This tool is for scenario planning; it is not investment advice. Edit anchors and multipliers to reflect your house view.