Bitcoin price prediction 2026 and 2027

BTC
Layer 1
1-year model median
$117,069
Current price $75,940.59

Bitcoin price prediction summary

HorizonHigh (P90)MedianLow (P10)
30 days$97,853 increased by 29.20% from reference close$79,516 increased by 5.00% from reference close$65,734 decreased by 13.20% from reference close
90 days$126,777 increased by 67.40% from reference close$87,768 increased by 15.90% from reference close$59,355 decreased by 21.60% from reference close
1 year$284,557 increased by 275.70% from reference close$117,069 increased by 54.60% from reference close$50,056 decreased by 33.90% from reference close

Rounded USD prices. Low and high are model P10 and P90; changes are from each snapshot’s reference close.

BTC price forecast chart

Published automatically
Reference close
$75,747
Median terminal price
$117,069
Target date
CryptoSlate Forecast

1-year price prediction

Actual Forecast median 50% 80% 95%
Target-date scenarios Bullish scenario Bearish scenario Black swan stress
Bitcoin price history and 1-year prediction distribution Actual daily closes run from $101,301.29 on Nov 6, 2025 to the $75,746.93 reference close on Nov 6, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Nov 6, 2027; the scenarios below give the exact values on that date. Blue plain shading shows prices above the dashed median; orange hatched shading shows prices below it. Target-date markers use a circle for bullish, a triangle for bearish and an orange diamond for stress. The black swan marker is a separate stress estimate. Bullish scenario: $207,088 Bearish scenario: $67,451 Black swan stress: $15,517
Actual daily closes run from $101,301.29 on Nov 6, 2025 to the $75,746.93 reference close on Nov 6, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Nov 6, 2027; the scenarios below give the exact values on that date. Blue plain shading shows prices above the dashed median; orange hatched shading shows prices below it. Target-date markers use a circle for bullish, a triangle for bearish and an orange diamond for stress. The black swan marker is a separate stress estimate.

1-year bullish, bearish and stress scenarios

Target close

  • Bullish scenario

    173.4%
    $207,088 $165,008 to $284,557 corridor

    The bullish scenario is the model P80 terminal estimate, with its P70-P90 corridor shown as a range.

  • Bearish scenario

    11.0%
    $67,451 $50,056 to $82,920 corridor

    The bearish scenario is the model P20 terminal estimate, with its P10-P30 corridor shown as a range.

  • Black swan stress

    79.5%
    $15,517 Extreme-tail stress marker; not a precise probability claim

    This stressed downside marker extends the fitted loss tail beyond ordinary simulations and should not be read as a precise probability forecast.

Stress assumptions

  • Downside shock A clustered downside shock exceeds the model ordinary volatility regime.
  • Liquidity stress Liquidity deteriorates while forced selling amplifies the daily tail loss.
  • Tail extension The figure is an EVT stress extension, not a stated one-percent event probability.

Probabilistic scenario analysis, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.

Bitcoin price prediction by year

December 31 UTC close · USD
YearTarget dateUpside scenarioCentral scenarioDownside scenario
2026Year-end UTC close$96,466 increased by 27.40% from reference close$76,213 increased by 0.60% from reference close$60,427 decreased by 20.20% from reference close
2027Year-end UTC close$153,707 increased by 102.90% from reference close$78,975 increased by 4.30% from reference close$38,731 decreased by 48.90% from reference close
2028Year-end UTC close$231,984 increased by 206.30% from reference close$82,119 increased by 8.40% from reference close$27,998 decreased by 63.00% from reference close
2029Year-end UTC close$314,490 increased by 315.20% from reference close$85,176 increased by 12.40% from reference close$23,466 decreased by 69.00% from reference close
2030Year-end UTC close$381,322 increased by 403.40% from reference close$85,012 increased by 12.20% from reference close$20,246 decreased by 73.30% from reference close

Illustrative USD scenarios for December 31 through 2030. Percentage changes use the frozen reference close. A simulation uses up to three years of price history and drift shrinkage, adjusted by saved milestone assumptions. These bounds are not calibrated probability intervals; short-term backtests do not validate the annual model.

Reference close: Nov 6, 2026. Each event effect phases in once and is then held constant. Neutral central assumptions leave the central baseline unchanged. Overlapping events and effects already reflected in price can distort results. Review the assumptions with each event; price effects are illustrative editorial inputs.

View forecast milestones

Bitcoin forecast milestones

Price effects are editorial assumptions saved with this forecast, not source-backed estimates.

2027 Jan–Sep

Regulation · European Union

First DAC8 crypto-asset reports and information exchange

DAC8 covers reportable crypto-asset transactions from 2026. The first national reporting and cross-border exchange cycle occurs in 2027, with the initial information exchanges due by September 30; domestic provider deadlines differ. For Bitcoin, implementation may affect compliance friction, participation and confidence in regulated access. This is a reporting milestone, not a new tax rate or a ban on Bitcoin.

Scheduled EU Commission primary source Checked

Illustrative price effects

Upside
+5%
Central
0%
Downside
−5%
Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Local Bitcoin example: upside +5%, central 0%, downside -5% are illustrative sensitivity assumptions, not European Commission price estimates. The central case assumes known reporting requirements are already priced in. The alternatives represent incremental compliance friction or improved confidence. Do not add another adjustment for the same DAC8 rollout under a different label.
Event timing
Jan 1, 2027 – Sep 30, 2027
Phase-in
Begins at the expected date or window start; reaches full effect 90 days after the event or window ends.
2028 Expected year

Network · Bitcoin network

Bitcoin block subsidy halving at block 1,050,000

The next subsidy halving reduces new issuance per block from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC. The block height is protocol-defined; 2028 is an estimated calendar year, represented here as a broad window. Lower issuance can support scarcity, while miner revenue pressure and an anticipated event can limit or reverse the price response.

Scheduled bitcoin.org primary source Checked
Related coverage

Illustrative price effects

Upside
+25%
Central
0%
Downside
−15%
Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Local Bitcoin example: upside +25%, central 0%, downside -15% are illustrative incremental price assumptions, not empirical halving estimates or predictions supplied by Bitcoin.org. The central case assumes the expected issuance change is already reflected in price. Downside represents miner/liquidity stress; upside represents stronger-than-expected demand. Review these assumptions and narrow the date window as block-height evidence improves.
Event timing
Jan 1, 2028 – Dec 31, 2028 · Block 1,050,000
Phase-in
Begins at the expected date or window start; reaches full effect 180 days after the event or window ends.
2032 Expected year

Network · Bitcoin network

Bitcoin block subsidy halving at block 1,260,000

At block 1,260,000, the block subsidy falls from 1.5625 BTC to 0.78125 BTC. The height and subsidy follow the protocol halving schedule; 2032 is an estimated calendar year, represented as a broad window. Lower issuance may support scarcity, while miner revenue pressure and advance anticipation can offset the price response. This event is beyond the current forecast window through 2030.

Scheduled bitcoin.org primary source Checked

Beyond 2030

No adjustment to forecasts through 2030.

Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Recorded for the longer-term roadmap. No price adjustment is applied to forecasts through 2030 because this event begins later. The 2032 window is an estimate inferred from the roughly four-year schedule, not a fixed protocol date. Price sensitivities remain unassigned at 0% until a forecast covering this event is introduced and explicit editorial assumptions are set.
Event timing
Jan 1, 2032 – Dec 31, 2032 · Block 1,260,000
TBD Date not known

Network upgrade · Bitcoin network

Quantum-computing risk and post-quantum migration

A sufficiently capable quantum computer could threaten Bitcoin signatures and exposed public keys. Post-quantum migration could reduce that risk, while an attack or a difficult transition could damage confidence. BIP 361 describes a possible migration and legacy-signature sunset, but it remains a draft proposal with no activation date. This is an undated risk to monitor, not a claim that an attack or upgrade is scheduled.

Proposed github.com primary source Checked
Related coverage

Context only

Date not known; no price adjustment.

Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Context only: no reliable date for a cryptographically relevant quantum attack or an activated Bitcoin migration is established. No numerical adjustment is applied. The 0% fields are unassigned price sensitivities, not a judgment that quantum risk has no economic impact. A dated scenario and explicit editorial effects must be set before this risk can adjust the annual model. Proposal-relative phases are not calendar deadlines.
Event timing
Date not known

How we build this forecast

We use historical Bitcoin prices to model possible outcomes. Backtested forecasts and fitting-only illustrative outlooks have separate evidence and limitations.

  1. Historical prices

    Past price data informs volatility and market patterns.

  2. Range of outcomes

    Models estimate possible future prices. Illustrative outlooks also apply saved milestone assumptions.

  3. Tested on past data

    Held-out forecasts are scored against a simple baseline. This does not validate the separate illustrative outlooks.

Latest 1-year validation

1.98% worse than baseline

CRPS improvement -1.98%; one-sided 95% lower bound -8.30%.

Model
0.4.0
Snapshot as of
Model details and inputs

Technical details

The forecast combines a horizon-aware, drift-shrunk Student-t GARCH model, filtered historical simulation, and regularized quantile regression. Nonnegative model weights are learned from earlier Monday-UTC forecast dates without using future data. An embargo of 52 weekly origins separates calibration from evaluation, followed by 10 held-out forecasts spaced 371 days apart. Performance is measured using CRPS and coverage diagnostics against the strongest predeclared simple baseline. An EVT model extends the downside tail for the black-swan stress scenario.

Price data CoinMarketCap, CryptoSlate

  • Volatility baseline Models changing volatility and heavy-tailed returns with a Student-t GARCH process. 100.0% ensemble weight
  • Historical simulation Replays filtered historical shocks to preserve non-normal moves without looking ahead. 0.0% ensemble weight
  • Quantile estimates Uses regularized predictors to estimate the terminal distribution at multiple percentiles. 0.0% ensemble weight
Model sensitivities
  • 30-day price momentum

    Momentum shifts the regularized quantile component while shrinkage limits extrapolation.

  • Volatility and fat tails

    Higher conditional volatility widens both upside and downside predictive bands.

  • Fixed-time prediction markets

    The first release retains a zero-weight boundary until historical overlay validation is available.

Risks and limitations

  • Past market behavior may not represent a new market structure or regulatory shock.

  • The forecast targets one UTC terminal price and does not predict the full intraday path.

  • Actual prices can finish outside every displayed interval.

  • Non-overlapping labels reduce mechanical overlap, but regime dependence can persist and manual review remains required.

Validation evidence
  • Backtest origins

    An origin is a historical date when the model is tested as if it were issuing a live forecast.

    Public raw backtest origins are fixed to Monday UTC to prevent schedule shopping, meaning results cannot be improved by choosing unusually favorable start dates. This horizon requires at least 4,879 continuous daily candles, including up to six days of weekday-alignment slack.

  • Calibration and holdout

    Calibration origins are earlier forecasts used to choose the ensemble weights. Held-out origins are kept separate and used only to evaluate the chosen model.

    This run used 72 weekly calibration origins and compared weight selection with Student-t GARCH. An embargo then skipped 52 weekly dates, creating a deliberate gap before evaluation.

    The final 10 held-out origins were issued 371 days apart across a 478-position validation span so their 1-year outcomes do not overlap.

  • CRPS and confidence

    CRPS stands for Continuous Ranked Probability Score. It measures the accuracy of the full probability forecast rather than a single price target; lower is better because it rewards both an accurate center and honest uncertainty bands.

    The held-out point edge against the strongest simple baseline was -2.0%. The minimum one-sided 95% paired lower bound was -8.3%; this conservative check asks whether the measured advantage remains above zero after accounting for sample variation.

    The monitoring target is a point edge of at least 2% and a positive lower bound against both GARCH and filtered historical simulation. These regime-dependent diagnostics remain advisory and do not interrupt publication.

  • Simulation and reproducibility

    A simulation path is one plausible 1-year price journey drawn by the model.

    The published run used 2,000 paths for the displayed distribution and 2,000 paths at each backtest origin.

    RNG seed 305,699,117,028,476,037 fixes the random-number stream so an identical run can be reproduced. It is deterministically derived from the frozen forecast.v1 production salt, horizon, asset ID, and modeled reference-close timestamp; candles, provenance, and market inputs do not select the random stream. The modeled reference close is timestamped 2026-11-06T23:59:59Z.

  • Prediction-market overlay

    No quality-qualified Polymarket evidence contributed to this forecast, so prediction-market prices did not move the published distribution.

Model
illustrative-outlook.v1
Price history
1,096 consecutive daily closes, from 2023-11-07 to 2026-11-06. Minimum: 366 closes; maximum: 1096.
Method
One horizon-adjusted Student-t GARCH simulation supplies the rolling 365-day and year-end targets.
Milestones
Saved milestone effects are editorial assumptions.
Validation
No held-out target-horizon validation or calibrated coverage is claimed.
Full methodology Opens in a new tab

Bitcoin prediction track record

Showing retained 1-year forecasts. No targets have an exact stored close available for evaluation yet.

Scroll to view all columns

Forecast dateTarget dateMedian80% rangeActual closeResult
$120,381.34$53,848.81 to $273,615.43—Target pending
$121,350.36$52,661.52 to $273,696.45—Target pending
$123,242.59$49,826.78 to $266,175.54—Target pending

One first-retained forecast per two-month calendar period, up to six rows. Completed checkpoints take priority. Values stay fixed; results use exact CoinMarketCap USD daily closes. The displayed sample’s hit rate excludes pending targets and missing closes. Past results do not guarantee future accuracy.

Public Bitcoin predictions

What public figures said, when they said it, and the targets they set. These statements are separate from the CryptoSlate forecast.

Unknown statement dates use the article date. Price sorting uses single USD targets; other targets appear last.
  1. Said on

    Brian Armstrong

    CEO · Coinbase

    Armstrong called $400,000 by 2030 a reasonable personal Bitcoin target. He argued that the cycle bottom was in and expected a recovery as the next halving approached, explicitly presenting the view as his own rather than a Coinbase forecast.

    The $400,000 level has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The 2030 horizon remains open; no final success or failure is assigned to Armstrong’s personal outlook. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $400,000
    Timeframe
    By 2030
    Conditions
    Personal outlook; cycle recovery and the next halving
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  2. Said on

    Geoffrey Kendrick

    Global Head of Digital Assets Research · Standard Chartered

    Kendrick reaffirmed Standard Chartered’s $100,000 Bitcoin target for Dec. 31, 2026 after the June selloff. The recovery case depended on stabilizing ETF flows, continued Strategy buying, regulatory progress and Bitcoin reclaiming key trend levels.

    The Dec. 31, 2026 deadline has not passed. This entry records the June 2026 reaffirmation of a revised $100,000 forecast; no final year-end outcome is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $100,000
    Timeframe
    By December 31, 2026
    Conditions
    ETF flows, Strategy buying, regulation and trend recovery
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  3. Reported on

    Thomas Lee

    Co-founder · Fundstrat Global Advisors

    Lee outlined a $200,000–$250,000 Bitcoin range for 2026 as a market-cycle outlook supported by institutional adoption. This is a separate 2026 forecast from his earlier price targets.

    The $200,000–$250,000 range has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The stated 2026 horizon remains open, so the forecast is not classified as missed. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $200,000–$250,000
    Timeframe
    During 2026
    Conditions
    2026 market-cycle outlook; one price range
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  4. Said on

    Matthew Sigel

    Head of Digital Assets Research · VanEck

    Sigel described $1 million Bitcoin as VanEck’s adoption-driven base case over about five years, while warning of substantial cyclical volatility. His original CNBC segment specified five years, clarifying the looser presidential-term wording in subsequent coverage.

    The $1 million level has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The approximately five-year horizon remains open; no final success or failure is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $1 million
    Timeframe
    Within about five years of May 2026 (circa 2031)
    Conditions
    Adoption-driven base case; substantial cyclical volatility
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  5. Said on

    Matthew Hougan

    Chief Investment Officer · Bitwise

    Hougan presented a conditional $1 million Bitcoin valuation over ten years. His model assumed the store-of-value market expanded to about $121 trillion and Bitcoin captured approximately 17% of it; it was an adoption scenario rather than an unconditional price promise.

    The $1 million level has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The ten-year horizon remains open, and the valuation depends on the model’s market-growth and market-share assumptions; no final outcome is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $1 million
    Timeframe
    Over ten years from the March 2026 model
    Conditions
    Conditional valuation model; market growth and 17% share
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  6. Reported on

    Carol Alexander

    Professor of Finance · University of Sussex Business School

    Alexander expected Bitcoin to trade in a high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000 during 2026, with a center around $110,000. The forecast described a trading range rather than a single year-end price.

    The proposed $75,000 lower bound was breached: Bitcoin briefly traded below $60,000 in June 2026. The full-year horizon remains open; this is not a clean range hit. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $75,000–$150,000 (center around $110,000)
    Timeframe
    During 2026
    Conditions
    High-volatility trading range; center around $110,000
    Editorial assessment
    Mixed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  7. Said on
    Price target
    $200,000
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2025
    Conditions
    Further spot ETF inflows and US government risks
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  8. Said on

    Arthur Hayes

    Co-founder and former CEO · BitMEX

    Hayes expected a correction to $70,000–$75,000 before Bitcoin could rally to $250,000 by the end of 2025. His outlook depended on central banks responding to financial stress with easier monetary policy.

    The $250,000 year-end 2025 target was not reached. Bitcoin’s recorded all-time high remains below $250,000. The forecast also described an earlier pullback; this assessment concerns the stated year-end target. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $250,000
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2025
    Conditions
    Pullback first
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  9. Reported on

    Michael Saylor

    Executive chairman · MicroStrategy

    Saylor projected that Bitcoin could reach $13 million per coin within 21 years, while arguing for corporate treasury adoption. The coverage does not establish the exact interview date.

    The $13 million target has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The 21-year horizon from the 2024 report remains open, so no final success or failure is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $13 million
    Timeframe
    Within 21 years
    Conditions
    Long-term outlook
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  10. Reported on

    Anthony Scaramucci

    Founder · SkyBridge Capital

    Scaramucci outlined a $170,000–$200,000 long-term Bitcoin range after the 2024 halving, while warning that short-term geopolitical volatility could cause a 10%–15% decline.

    The $170,000–$200,000 range has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The article does not give a firm deadline, so the long-term forecast is not classified as missed. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $170,000–$200,000
    Timeframe
    Long term after the 2024 halving; no exact deadline
    Conditions
    Adoption and post-halving growth; short-term volatility
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  11. Said on

    Thomas Lee

    Co-founder · Fundstrat Global Advisors

    Lee forecast that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 during 2024, citing spot ETF demand, the halving’s effect on supply and potential monetary easing.

    Bitcoin did not reach $150,000 during 2024. Its recorded all-time high remains below $150,000 as of this assessment. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $150,000
    Timeframe
    During 2024
    Conditions
    Spot ETF demand, halving and potential monetary easing
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  12. Said on

    Thomas Lee

    Co-founder · Fundstrat Global Advisors

    In the same February 2024 interview, Lee gave a separate long-term Bitcoin target of $500,000 within five years.

    The $500,000 level has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The stated five-year horizon runs into 2029 and remains open; no final success or failure is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $500,000
    Timeframe
    Within five years of the February 2024 statement
    Conditions
    Long-term outlook; separate from the 2024 target
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  13. Said on

    Cathie Wood

    CEO · ARK Invest

    Wood outlined a Bitcoin bull case of $1.5 million by 2030 following US spot ETF approval. She also described a more conservative base case of about $600,000 by the same year.

    The $1.5 million bull-case target has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. Its 2030 horizon remains open, so it is not classified as missed; the source also described a separate base case. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $1.5 million
    Timeframe
    By 2030
    Conditions
    Bull case; base case about $600K
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  14. Reported on

    Balaji Srinivasan

    Entrepreneur and former Coinbase CTO

    Srinivasan bet that Bitcoin would reach $1 million within 90 days, by June 17, 2023, arguing that a banking crisis could lead to rapid dollar hyperinflation.

    Bitcoin did not reach $1 million by June 17, 2023. Its recorded all-time high remains below $1 million as of this assessment. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $1 million
    Timeframe
    By June 17, 2023 (90-day bet)
    Conditions
    Banking crisis and rapid dollar hyperinflation thesis
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  15. Reported on

    Raoul Pal

    Co-founder · Real Vision

    Rejecting Srinivasan’s $1 million bet, Pal said Bitcoin could reach $50,000 during 2023 or within the next 12 months as liquidity conditions improved.

    Bitcoin reached $50,000 on Feb. 12, 2024, within 12 months of the March 2023 report. It did not do so during calendar 2023; the broader alternative horizon was met. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $50,000
    Timeframe
    During 2023 or within the next 12 months
    Conditions
    Improving liquidity; separate from Srinivasan’s $1 million bet
    Editorial assessment
    Target met
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  16. Reported on

    Mike Novogratz

    CEO · Galaxy Digital

    Novogratz said Bitcoin could reach $500,000 within five years, citing adoption and the macroeconomic case for scarce assets despite the 2022 bear market.

    The $500,000 target has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The five-year horizon runs into 2027 and remains open; no final success or failure is assigned. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $500,000
    Timeframe
    Within five years of the 2022 statement
    Conditions
    Long-term adoption and macroeconomic outlook
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  17. Reported on

    Peter Schiff

    CEO · Euro Pacific Capital

    Schiff offered a bearish year-end outlook, saying Bitcoin would be closer to $30,000 by the end of 2021.

    Bitcoin ended December 2021 around $46,472, above $30,000. The late-year decline partly aligned with the bearish direction, but “closer to” did not define an exact price or tolerance. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    Closer to $30,000
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2021
    Conditions
    Qualitative bearish outlook; no exact price tolerance
    Editorial assessment
    Mixed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  18. Said on
    Price target
    $20,000–$30,000
    Timeframe
    Near term; no exact deadline stated
    Conditions
    Pullback within a longer-term bull market
    Editorial assessment
    Target met
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  19. Said on

    Tyler Winklevoss

    Co-founder · Gemini

    Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss set out a joint $500,000 long-term Bitcoin case based on replacing gold as a store of value, with further upside if companies and central banks adopted it as a reserve asset.

    The $500,000 level has not been reached as of Nov. 7, 2026. The original statement did not set a firm deadline, so the long-term thesis cannot be classified as missed. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $500,000
    Timeframe
    Over a long period of time; no firm deadline
    Conditions
    Joint Winklevoss outlook; gold and reserve-asset adoption
    Editorial assessment
    Cannot verify
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  20. Said on

    Thomas Lee

    Co-founder · Fundstrat Global Advisors

    Lee maintained that Bitcoin could reach $25,000 by the end of 2018, citing mining economics and his view that the market was trading near its lows.

    Bitcoin did not reach $25,000 during 2018. CryptoSlate’s historical review places the previous 2017 peak near $20,000 and the end-2018 price around $3,700. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $25,000
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2018
    Conditions
    Mining costs and a recovery from market lows
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  21. Said on

    Tim Draper

    Venture capital investor

    Draper reiterated a $250,000 Bitcoin target by 2022, arguing that cryptocurrencies could gain adoption as fiat currencies lost purchasing power.

    The $250,000 target was not reached during 2022, using the end of the stated calendar year as the assessment cutoff. Bitcoin’s recorded all-time high remains below $250,000 as of this assessment. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $250,000
    Timeframe
    By 2022
    Conditions
    Year-only 2022 target; assessed using end-2022 cutoff
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  22. Reported on
    Price target
    $40,000
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2018
    Conditions
    Limited supply and rising demand
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage

Historical statements retain their original context. Targets may change; inclusion is not endorsement or a claim of accuracy.

What prediction markets expect

Market odds provide external context and are not used to calculate CryptoSlate forecasts.

Scroll to view all columns

MarketIntervalLeading outcomeProbabilitySource
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? Stored odds as of MonthlyBelow 75,00086.5%Polymarket
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026? Stored odds as of YearlyBelow 70,00053.5%Polymarket

Stored odds show each market once with its highest-probability outcome. Open a market for all outcomes, settlement rules and its latest available data.

Bitcoin price prediction FAQ

How is the Bitcoin price prediction calculated?

Backtested forecasts model prices at a stated target date using historical returns and volatility. Separately labeled illustrative outlooks fit scenarios to available price history with any saved milestone assumptions. The Method section identifies the inputs and validation evidence for the selected run.

What do the low and high forecasts mean?

In the backtested forecast table, low and high are the 10th and 90th model percentiles at the target date. Actual outcomes can fall outside them. Separately labeled illustrative outlooks use downside, central and upside scenarios with editorial milestone assumptions; their bounds are not calibrated probability intervals.

Why do the one-year and year-end targets differ?

The one-year target is 365 days after its reference close. By-year rows are December 31 UTC closes, so the target dates can differ. Year-end scenarios use a separate annual simulation with any saved milestone assumptions, so their model calculation also differs from the backtested one-year forecast.

How do future milestones affect the forecasts?

Saved milestone assumptions adjust annual scenarios and illustrative outlooks using each event’s timing and phase-in settings. Dates and event mechanics may be sourced, but price effects are editorial assumptions. Neutral central assumptions leave the baseline unchanged; undated events and events outside the forecast window add no numerical effect. These adjustments do not alter the backtested 30-day, 90-day or one-year forecasts.

Are prediction-market odds included in the model?

No. Prediction-market odds are shown as separate context and have zero weight in the published model. A market may use a different target date or ask whether a price will be touched before a deadline, so its odds cannot be compared directly with a terminal price forecast.

How should I judge the forecast’s accuracy?

Check the Method section and Track record where available. Backtests compare earlier forecasts with known outcomes and a simple baseline; a result for one horizon does not validate another. Historical performance does not establish future accuracy, and annual scenarios and illustrative outlooks have separate limitations.

Can this predict whether a price will be touched?

No. A terminal distribution describes prices at a target date. It does not give the probability of touching a threshold at any point before that date.

Why can the reference close differ from the current price?

Each forecast uses a frozen reference close. Current quotes can change after the run. Forecast percentage changes are measured from that reference close, not from the latest quote.

Why are some forecast horizons or sections missing?

Price targets require enough usable historical data and an available published model output. A horizon can also be paused or withheld. Sections such as annual forecasts, milestones and prediction markets are omitted when they have no published content.

Are predictions guaranteed or investment advice?

No. Model assumptions, limited historical samples and changing market conditions create substantial uncertainty. Older snapshots are labeled, and paused forecasts withhold current targets.

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Prediction disclaimer

Forecasts are model-based scenarios, not financial advice or guarantees. Data quality, model limits and event assumptions affect results. Past performance does not predict returns; you may lose all you invest.

Ownership & affiliation

All images, branding and wording belong to Bitcoin and their respective owners. CryptoSlate has no affiliation with the projects mentioned. This page provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes.