What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
Current Odds
Target price
14 more outcomes Listed by target price, highest first
Odds Summary
Below 75,000 leads at 86.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
Bitcoin November market tracks price touches, not a closing target
The BTC contracts use Binance one-minute candle highs or lows, with separate rules for the qualifying window of each threshold.
The November 2026 Bitcoin event on Polymarket lists separate contracts for upward and downward price thresholds. In the imported snapshot reviewed on November 7, the outcome labeled Below 75,000 carried a quoted Yes probability of 87.5%. That quote is a market snapshot, rather than a confirmed threshold hit or a forecast of the final November closing price.
What counts as hitting a threshold?
The source rules use finalized Binance one-minute candles for the BTC/USDT trading pair. An upward contract requires a candle High at or above its specified level. A downward contract requires a candle Low at or below its specified level. An intraminute price excursion can therefore matter even if the candle closes back inside that level; the relevant measure is its final High or Low, not its closing price.
Check the qualifying window for each contract
The event covers November 2026, with the rules ending at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 30. The imported event timestamp is December 1, 2026, at 05:00 UTC. Individual contracts do not all use identical starting language. Some cover the full month from midnight ET on November 1; others start at that contract’s creation and expressly exclude earlier price action.
This distinction matters for thresholds added after November began. A price reached earlier in the month cannot automatically be used to settle a later-created contract. Each threshold’s own creation time and full rules must be checked before treating a historical print as qualifying.
Several outcomes can resolve Yes
These are separate touch conditions rather than mutually exclusive destinations. A sufficiently wide trading range could satisfy an upward threshold and a downward threshold in the same month. Multiple thresholds on the same side can also qualify if price reaches them during their respective eligible windows.
It would therefore be misleading to add every displayed Yes probability as if the outcomes formed one distribution of month-end prices. It would also be misleading to assume that a high quote on a downward threshold rules out an upward touch. The contracts describe paths over time, with potentially different starting dates.
The specified Binance market controls settlement
The rules identify Binance BTC/USDT. A quote on another exchange or a different trading pair does not substitute for the specified Binance data. The one-minute chart setting and the appropriate High or Low field are essential when checking a candidate touch.
How to read the November odds
The 87.5% snapshot for Below 75,000 expresses pricing for that particular condition. It does not establish Bitcoin’s current price, explain why traders chose a position, or confirm a future catalyst. Previously settled thresholds should also be distinguished from open contracts when reviewing the event.
Price moves and market quotes can change after this review. A settlement assessment should pair the exact threshold, its eligible time window and its status with the finalized candle data named by the source. Claims about fund flows, forced selling, protocol developments or broader economic causes require separate evidence and are not inferred from the threshold ladder here.
Sources
Polymarket: What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
Binance settlement reference
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The ladder implies Bitcoin is more likely than not to trade through $80,000 during November, while a sustained move to $85,000 appears materially less likely.
The sharp probability drop above $80,000 prices a modest upside extension rather than a broad breakout, despite the market’s month-long measurement window.
What Could Reprice It
October CPI, due November 10, is the clearest near-term repricing event because an inflation surprise can quickly alter rate expectations and risk-asset pricing.
Its timing leaves most of November open for a reassessment of the probability that Bitcoin reaches the market’s higher price thresholds.
Where the Market May Be Weak
The event wording does not specify a pricing source, observation method, or precise definition of “hit,” limiting certainty over how an intramonth threshold is settled.
The listed prices are references to underlying binary markets, but the supplied rules do not clarify whether a wick, venue-specific print, or index price qualifies.
Counter-Signal
The implied upside path can fail if inflation data lifts expected rates or tightens financial conditions, reducing risk appetite before Bitcoin reaches the higher thresholds.
CPI is explicitly identified as a key input to rate expectations; its scheduled release makes macro downside a live alternative to the market’s moderate-upside interpretation.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- What price will Bitcoin hit in November?
- Platform
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- Category
- Crypto › Bitcoin
- Scheduled deadline
- December 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- binance.com
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current What price will Bitcoin hit in November odds?
Polymarket reports What price will Bitcoin hit in November odds with ↓ 75,000 at 86.5%, ↑ 77,500 at 84.5%, ↓ 72,500 at 59.5%, and ↑ 80,000 at 56.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $3.86M volume, $1.6M liquidity, and $1.42M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Nov 7, 2026, 02:52 UTC.
What could move the What price will Bitcoin hit in November prediction market odds?
The ladder implies Bitcoin is more likely than not to trade through $80,000 during November, while a sustained move to $85,000 appears materially less likely. The sharp probability drop above $80,000 prices a modest upside extension rather than a broad breakout, despite the market’s month-long measurement window. Catalysts to watch include November macro releases before month-end, U.S. October CPI release, November 10, and Settlement-source clarification or market resolution.
How does the What price will Bitcoin hit in November prediction market resolve?
What price will Bitcoin hit in November? Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. The settlement source listed for this market is binance.com.
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