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Further interest hikes anticipated going into late summer Further interest hikes anticipated going into late summer

Further interest hikes anticipated going into late summer

A brief reprieve from interest increases in July appears to have been just that, as the Fed will likely resume its rate hikes soon.

Quick Take

The impending meeting of the Federal Reserve on July 26th is highly likely to culminate in a further increase of 25 basis points (bps) to the interest rate, as suggested by a formidable 99.8% probability. Presently, the target rate is positioned between 500-525 bps, and this forecasted adjustment is set to raise the federal funds rate to span from 525-550 bps.

Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s meeting slated for September 20th is also garnering significant attention. Current projections indicate an 18% chance of an extra rate hike at this juncture, a probability that appears to be on an upward trajectory.

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to deliver its decision a day following the Federal Reserve’s verdict. The signs also point towards a 25 bps rate hike, set to augment their current interest rate to 425 bps.

Probabilities: (Source: CME)
Probabilities: (Source: CME)