Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date
Odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market at 24.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jul 26, 2026 12:27 am.
What could move the odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect the reported prediction-market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
The December pricing implies roughly a one-in-four chance that a ceasefire starts by year-end and survives the rule’s full 10-day test.
The gap versus the October timeframe suggests the market assigns more weight to a later diplomatic opening than to an immediate halt in fighting.
What could reprice it
Upcoming G7, Coalition of the Willing and NATO coordination meetings are the clearest cited catalyst for security guarantees or a credible ceasefire framework.
The France-UK-Germany-Ukraine statement identifies these meetings as points for further coordination after a ceasefire, making related commitments material to expectations.
Where the market may be weak
Settlement hinges on whether a ceasefire “goes into effect” and remains continuous, yet the supplied rules do not identify a settlement source or define breaches.
That leaves scope for dispute over localized attacks, violations, or competing official claims during the required 10-day period; the displayed price embeds this resolution risk.
Counter-signal
Recent large-scale attacks on Kyiv and the EU’s new sanctions package indicate active conflict and pressure, conditions that could prevent a durable near-term truce.
The UN described the July 2 overnight attacks as among the largest since the war’s escalation, while the EU adopted further measures on July 23.
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Russia
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds?
Polymarket reports Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds with December 31 at 24.5% and October 31 at 13.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $905.75K volume, $164.31K liquidity, and $243.09K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Jul 25, 2026, 23:27 UTC.
What could move the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market odds?
The December pricing implies roughly a one-in-four chance that a ceasefire starts by year-end and survives the rule’s full 10-day test. The gap versus the October timeframe suggests the market assigns more weight to a later diplomatic opening than to an immediate halt in fighting. Catalysts to watch include Security-guarantee coordination at named diplomatic meetings, G7, Coalition of the Willing and NATO meetings, and A reported ceasefire entering its verification window.
How does the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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