Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date
Odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market at 13.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Sep 12, 2026 10:17 am.
What could move the odds?
Informational summary of factors that may affect the reported prediction-market probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
The 5.5% October and 13.5% December pricing implies a durable, full ceasefire is viewed as unlikely in 2026 despite active diplomacy.
The higher December probability suggests time is valued, but the market still assigns a large chance that talks do not produce 10 uninterrupted days of ceasefire.
What could reprice it
The House’s prospective decision on a Russia sanctions bill is the clearest supported policy catalyst because it could alter pressure on Moscow and talks.
AP News reported on September 11 that the House was moving toward a vote, while also describing passage prospects as uncertain; either outcome could reset expectations.
Where the market may be weak
The contract measures more than a political agreement: it requires a ceasefire to take effect and remain continuous for 10 calendar days by each deadline.
That strict test can disconnect prices from headline progress, partial pauses, or announced talks. The rules also do not specify how the scope of a ceasefire is determined.
Counter-signal
The thesis could fail if the U.S. channel converts limited flexibility into a broader pact: Ukraine signaled readiness for an airstrike pause and the UN saw a path to talks.
Ukraine’s statement was limited to cities involved in negotiations, and the UN also noted continuing attacks on civilians, so this is evidence of an opening rather than confirmation.
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Russia
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 9:59 PM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds?
Polymarket reports Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date odds with December 31 at 13.5% and October 31 at 5.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $1.88M volume, $318.75K liquidity, and $599.56K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Sep 12, 2026, 09:17 UTC.
What could move the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market odds?
The 5.5% October and 13.5% December pricing implies a durable, full ceasefire is viewed as unlikely in 2026 despite active diplomacy. The higher December probability suggests time is valued, but the market still assigns a large chance that talks do not produce 10 uninterrupted days of ceasefire. Catalysts to watch include U.S. sanctions-bill vote process, House action on Russia sanctions, and A formally implemented ceasefire.
How does the Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
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