Satoshi’s identity proven in 2026? No 96.8%
Yes 3.2%
Prediction Markets Overview — a comprehensive summary
Explore prediction market data across politics, sports, crypto, finance, and more. Track probabilities, compare platforms, and follow how market expectations change over time.
Total Active Markets 106
Total Volume $4.37B
Open Interest $217.41M
Total Liquidity $361.12M
Satoshi’s identity proven in 2026? 
Presidential Election Winner 2028 JD Vance 23.4%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14.2%
Marco Rubio 10.9%
+49 more outcomes
Next Secretary-General of the United Nations Rebeca Grynspan 37.5%
Rafael Grossi 20.5%
Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett 9.9%
+5 more outcomes
Next French Presidential Election Marine Le Pen 31.4%
Édouard Philippe 24.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 13.5%
+38 more outcomes
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? December 31 4%
September 30 1.5%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire Date December 31 15.5%
October 31 7.5%
Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner The Odyssey 54%
Dune: Part Three 13.5%
Wild Horse Nine 9.5%
+16 more outcomes
GPT-6 release date December 31, 2026 69.5%
November 30, 2026 59.5%
October 31, 2026 43.5%
+3 more outcomes
Next Google Gemini Pro Model release date? No release by August 31 93.2%
August 27 2.2%
August 23 1.2%
+7 more outcomes
SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 October 31 97.1%
September 30 94.2%
Super Heavy booster explodes? 79.5%
+5 more outcomes
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98.2%
Yes 1.9%
Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? SpaceX 57.5%
Anthropic 43.5%
OpenAI 0.5%
+9 more outcomes