Current Odds
Target price
10 more outcomes Listed by target price, highest first
Odds Summary
Above 1.20 leads at 78% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
XRP November market tracks price touches, not a closing target
The XRP contracts use Binance one-minute candle highs or lows, with separate rules for the qualifying window of each threshold.
The November 2026 XRP event on Polymarket lists separate contracts for upward and downward price thresholds. In the imported snapshot reviewed on November 7, the outcome labeled Above 1.20 carried a quoted Yes probability of 88%. That quote is a market snapshot, rather than a confirmed threshold hit or a forecast of the final November closing price.
What counts as hitting a threshold?
The source rules use finalized Binance one-minute candles for the XRP/USDT trading pair. An upward contract requires a candle High at or above its specified level. A downward contract requires a candle Low at or below its specified level. An intraminute price excursion can therefore matter even if the candle closes back inside that level; the relevant measure is its final High or Low, not its closing price.
Check the qualifying window for each contract
The event covers November 2026, with the rules ending at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 30. The imported event timestamp is December 1, 2026, at 05:00 UTC. Individual contracts do not all use identical starting language. Some cover the full month from midnight ET on November 1; others start at that contract’s creation and expressly exclude earlier price action.
This distinction matters for thresholds added after November began. A price reached earlier in the month cannot automatically be used to settle a later-created contract. Each threshold’s own creation time and full rules must be checked before treating a historical print as qualifying.
Several outcomes can resolve Yes
These are separate touch conditions rather than mutually exclusive destinations. A sufficiently wide trading range could satisfy an upward threshold and a downward threshold in the same month. Multiple thresholds on the same side can also qualify if price reaches them during their respective eligible windows.
It would therefore be misleading to add every displayed Yes probability as if the outcomes formed one distribution of month-end prices. It would also be misleading to assume that a high quote on a downward threshold rules out an upward touch. The contracts describe paths over time, with potentially different starting dates.
The specified Binance market controls settlement
The rules identify Binance XRP/USDT. A quote on another exchange or a different trading pair does not substitute for the specified Binance data. The one-minute chart setting and the appropriate High or Low field are essential when checking a candidate touch.
How to read the November odds
The 88% snapshot for Above 1.20 expresses pricing for that particular condition. It does not establish XRP’s current price, explain why traders chose a position, or confirm a future catalyst. Previously settled thresholds should also be distinguished from open contracts when reviewing the event.
Price moves and market quotes can change after this review. A settlement assessment should pair the exact threshold, its eligible time window and its status with the finalized candle data named by the source. Claims about fund flows, forced selling, protocol developments or broader economic causes require separate evidence and are not inferred from the threshold ladder here.
Sources
Polymarket: What price will XRP hit in November?
Binance settlement reference
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The market is pricing XRP as likely to touch $1.20 during November, making a brief upside move—not a month-end price—the central claim.
Because the contracts ask whether XRP will hit levels, the $1.20 Yes price reflects an intramonth touch threshold rather than a forecast of where XRP closes November.
What Could Reprice It
An SEC action clarifying how proposed Regulation Crypto Assets applies to XRP trading or ETFs could materially alter the market’s assumptions.
The proposal did not specifically address XRP, custodians, broker-dealers, trading platforms, or exchange-traded products, leaving a policy gap that a later clarification could narrow.
Where the Market May Be Weak
These are separate binary “hit” contracts, not mutually exclusive price bins: XRP could touch both $1.20 and $1.00 in November.
Polymarket’s rules describe each timeframe as a Yes price on an underlying binary market. The supplied criteria do not specify a reference exchange or observation method for the hit.
Counter-Signal
The upside-touch thesis could fail if the weaker pre-November tape persists: Bitwise reported a decline in XRP investment value through September 30.
Bitwise reported $1.8177 per XRP on December 31, 2025, versus $1.4912 on September 30, 2026. Existing ETF infrastructure may improve transmission of demand but does not establish sustained inflows.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- What price will XRP hit in November?
- Platform
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- Category
- Crypto › XRP
- Scheduled deadline
- December 1, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- binance.com
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current What price will XRP hit in November odds?
Polymarket reports What price will XRP hit in November odds with ↑ 1.20 at 78%, ↓ 1.00 at 34%, ↑ 1.40 at 20%, and ↑ 1.60 at 6.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $316.88K volume, $455.44K liquidity, and $179.58K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Nov 8, 2026, 19:22 UTC.
What could move the What price will XRP hit in November prediction market odds?
The market is pricing XRP as likely to touch $1.20 during November, making a brief upside move—not a month-end price—the central claim. Because the contracts ask whether XRP will hit levels, the $1.20 Yes price reflects an intramonth touch threshold rather than a forecast of where XRP closes November. Catalysts to watch include ETF flows or policy developments during November, SEC policy clarification affecting XRP or ETFs, and Settlement-source clarification.
How does the What price will XRP hit in November prediction market resolve?
What price will XRP hit in November? Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. The settlement source listed for this market is binance.com.
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