What price will Ethereum hit in November?

The November 2026 Ethereum event on Polymarket lists separate contracts for upward and downward price thresholds. In the imported snapshot reviewed on November 7, the outcome labeled Below 2,200 carried a quoted Yes probability of 85.5%. That quote is a market snapshot, rather than a confirmed threshold hit or a forecast of the final November closing price.

What counts as hitting a threshold?

The source rules use finalized Binance one-minute candles for the ETH/USDT trading pair. An upward contract requires a candle High at or above its specified level. A downward contract requires a candle Low at or below its specified level. An intraminute price excursion can therefore matter even if the candle closes back inside that level; the relevant measure is its final High or Low, not its closing price.

Check the qualifying window for each contract

The event covers November 2026, with the rules ending at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on November 30. The imported event timestamp is December 1, 2026, at 05:00 UTC. Individual contracts do not all use identical starting language. Some cover the full month from midnight ET on November 1; others start at that contract’s creation and expressly exclude earlier price action.

This distinction matters for thresholds added after November began. A price reached earlier in the month cannot automatically be used to settle a later-created contract. Each threshold’s own creation time and full rules must be checked before treating a historical print as qualifying.

Several outcomes can resolve Yes

These are separate touch conditions rather than mutually exclusive destinations. A sufficiently wide trading range could satisfy an upward threshold and a downward threshold in the same month. Multiple thresholds on the same side can also qualify if price reaches them during their respective eligible windows.

It would therefore be misleading to add every displayed Yes probability as if the outcomes formed one distribution of month-end prices. It would also be misleading to assume that a high quote on a downward threshold rules out an upward touch. The contracts describe paths over time, with potentially different starting dates.

The specified Binance market controls settlement

The rules identify Binance ETH/USDT. A quote on another exchange or a different trading pair does not substitute for the specified Binance data. The one-minute chart setting and the appropriate High or Low field are essential when checking a candidate touch.

How to read the November odds

The 85.5% snapshot for Below 2,200 expresses pricing for that particular condition. It does not establish Ethereum’s current price, explain why traders chose a position, or confirm a future catalyst. Previously settled thresholds should also be distinguished from open contracts when reviewing the event.

Price moves and market quotes can change after this review. A settlement assessment should pair the exact threshold, its eligible time window and its status with the finalized candle data named by the source. Claims about fund flows, forced selling, protocol developments or broader economic causes require separate evidence and are not inferred from the threshold ladder here.

Sources

Polymarket: What price will Ethereum hit in November?
Binance settlement reference