Plague declared public health emergency date?
Odds summary
December 31 currently leads the Plague declared public health emergency date prediction market at 10.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Oct 6, 2026 9:37 pm.
Plague emergency market prices two WHO declaration deadlines
The November 30 and December 31 contracts measure whether WHO issues a formal PHEIC declaration covering plague, with low quoted Yes prices in the imported snapshot.
Polymarket’s plague emergency event offers separate Yes/No contracts for November 30 and December 31, 2026. In the imported snapshot, the quoted Yes probabilities were 10.8% and 10%, respectively. These figures reflect market pricing at the time of review; they do not confirm an outbreak, predict case numbers, or establish that an emergency has been declared.
What determines settlement
Each contract requires the World Health Organization to officially declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and its specified deadline, at 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time. Without a qualifying declaration in that period, that contract resolves No. A national emergency announcement or a report of suspected cases alone does not meet the imported criterion.
Two deadlines for the same declaration
The outcomes are cumulative deadlines rather than competing alternatives. A qualifying declaration by November 30 would also fall within the December 31 period. A declaration after the November deadline but by the December deadline could satisfy only the later contract.
The earlier contract’s slightly higher quoted Yes price should therefore be interpreted cautiously. The difference does not establish a near-term outbreak scenario or explain traders’ reasoning. Separate contract pricing can diverge, and the displayed figures should be checked against the source before drawing conclusions about timing.
Reading the market snapshot
The imported event displayed approximately $7.29K in volume, $3.18K in liquidity and $4.14K in open interest. These are trading statistics, not evidence about public-health conditions. The event’s final imported close time is January 1, 2027, at 04:59 UTC, corresponding to the December 31 deadline at 11:59 p.m. ET.
The most relevant settlement evidence is an official WHO declaration that satisfies the contract wording and timing. General disease reports, media attention and market odds should be kept separate from that formal requirement.
Source
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Platform
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- Category
- Climate & Science › Nature
- Close date
- January 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Plague declared public health emergency date odds?
Polymarket reports Plague declared public health emergency date odds with December 31 at 10.5% and November 30 at 8.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $7.92K volume, $3.41K liquidity, and $4.32K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 6, 2026, 20:37 UTC.
How does the Plague declared public health emergency date prediction market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
