Fed Decision in October?
Odds summary
No change currently leads the Fed Decision in October prediction market at 79.5% reported probability on Polymarket. The figures below combine live odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest so readers can compare the market signal before reading the full analysis.
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Oct 5, 2026 9:47 pm.
October Fed market favors no change in interest rates
The contract measures the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range, with a quarter-point increase the leading alternative.
No change leads the imported October 2026 Fed-decision market at approximately 78.5%, followed by a 25-basis-point increase at 21.5%. The other listed outcomes each carried less than 1% in the reviewed snapshot. These are market prices, not a Federal Reserve commitment.
What the contract measures
The market defines interest rates using the upper bound of the target federal funds range. It concerns the change announced for the October decision, rather than the effective federal funds rate, a bond yield or a forecast for later meetings.
The listed outcomes cover no change, quarter-point increases and decreases, and increases or decreases of 50 basis points or more. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Timing and settlement
The source market identifies the October 28, 2026 decision; the imported close time is October 29 at 03:59 UTC. The formal FOMC announcement and the market’s detailed rules determine the outcome. A press comment or a movement in futures prices is not itself a policy decision.
Reading the favorite
The no-change lead leaves room for another outcome and can shift before the meeting. It does not establish why traders favor a hold. Claims about employment, inflation or a prior policy change require separately verified evidence. The comparison here is between quoted expectations and the eventual change in the specified target-range measure.
Polymarket market and full rules · Federal Reserve meeting calendar
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- Platform
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- Category
- Economy › Economic Policy
- Close date
- October 29, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- federalreserve.gov
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current Fed Decision in October odds?
Polymarket reports Fed Decision in October odds with No change at 79.5%, 25 bps increase at 20.5%, 50+ bps increase at 0.5%, and 25 bps decrease at 0.4%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $26.53M volume, $2.99M liquidity, and $3.82M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 5, 2026, 20:47 UTC.
How does the Fed Decision in October prediction market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. The settlement source listed for this market is Federalreserve.
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