Macro Insights: European CPI reaccelerates, when economists expected a slowdown
E.U. service inflation re-accelerated in February. Historically, Europe tends to lag the U.S by 5-6 months.
James Van Straten 1 min read Insights
Data-led research on the narratives, flows, and on-chain signals moving crypto markets.
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James Van Straten 1 min read Latest insights
Bitcoin
Bitcoin faces key resistance with 365D-SMA, 200W-SMA at $25k
Technical pricing models of the 365D-SMA and 200W-SMA are both priced at $25k for Bitcoin which is currently a key resistance
Bitcoin
Bitcoin re-entering exchanges, Whales dumping Bitcoin due to PCE data
Bitcoin illiquid supply change falls since the FTX collapse — indicating re-entry onto exchanges while realizing profits.
Stablecoins
BUSD has seen 12 billion withdrawn from exchanges in 3 months, USDT, BTC have been net beneficiaries
BUSD has under 10 billion balance on exchanges — while USDT has a stablecoin dominance of 55%, in addition to inflows for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin old supply has just surpassed 15 million coins – 78% of the circulating supply
A higher high has been shown to occur after each cycle — as long-term holders continue to hold on through volatile cycles.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin difficulty adjusts 10%, surpassing 180T, a new all-time high
Bitcoin difficulty adjusts positively for the third time in 2023, with two double-digit positive adjustments.
Bitcoin
Wall Street is now pricing in a terminal rate of 5.25-5.50, after hot PCE data, BTC down over 3%
Wall Street is now pricing in another 25 bps hike, in addition to the 50 BPS remaining, taking fed funds rate to 5.25-5.50
Bitcoin
Bitcoin holds just under $24k – DXY breaks 105 for the second time this year as PCE comes in hotter than expected
Bitcoin holds steady as PCE data comes in hotter than expected. While 30% chance of a 50 bps rate hike from the fed.
Macro
Bitcoin continues to follow the liquidity plus the aggregation of central bank balance sheets
Japan and China central bank balance sheets continue to expand and offset the quantitative tightening by Europe, UK and US.
Macro
Group of Bitcoin holders since 2013 holds more BTC than all exchanges
Last active 10+ years ago Bitcoin holders have a total of over 2.6M BTC vs exchanges holding 2.2M BTC
Bitcoin
Futures OI exceeds 500K Bitcoin – volatility, liquidations increase as a result
Futures open interest ramps up in the past month alongside the continuation of long liquidations — put pressure on price.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin continues to diverge away from U.S. equities, second most uncorrelated period in over a year
Throughout 2022 Bitcoin and US equities were joined at the hip, first meaningful divergence from one another in over a year.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin old and young coin spent volume at historic lows
Old (over six months old) and young (under six months old) Bitcoin spending volumes have hit extremely low levels.