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The Fed held rates steady as Powell warned that higher energy prices are pushing inflation back up, and Glassnode says Bitcoin is now stuck below its True Market Mean at roughly $79,000.
Gino Matos 6 min read 
US debt is growing faster than M2, leaving Bitcoin trapped between a bullish liquidity thesis and tighter market plumbing that keeps capping risk.
Bitcoin rose with crude oil while US equities were closed, then reversed as the S&P 500 fell, leaving flows, oil, and Fed risk in conflict.
Bitcoin is one Fed decision away from finding out whether its $80,000 rally has conviction or just relief.
The old summer sell signal looks weaker, but Bitcoin still needs inflation, jobs, and Fed data to hold the risk-on case.
A break in 10-year Treasury yields could decide whether Bitcoin clears $80,000 or turns another inflow streak into a failed rally.
Three straight billion-dollar inflow weeks show demand is returning, but Bitcoin still needs the Fed and spot buyers to cooperate.
Bitcoin faces a 48-hour macro trap as the Fed speaks first, but GDP and PCE get the last word.
Institutional investors have channeled more than $2 billion into Bitcoin ETFs as traders increasingly position for a breakout above $80,000.
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