Solana price prediction 2026 and 2027

SOL
Layer 1
1-year illustrative central scenario
$92.99
Current price $90.26

Solana price prediction summary

HorizonHigh (P90)MedianLow (P10)
30 days$127.15 increased by 41.20% from reference close$93.40 increased by 3.70% from reference close$68.97 decreased by 23.40% from reference close
90 daysNo public targets for this horizon
1 yearView 1-year illustrative outlook

Rounded USD prices. Low and high are model P10 and P90; changes are from each snapshot’s reference close.

SOL price forecast chart

Published automatically
Reference close
$90.06
Median terminal price
$93.40
Target date
CryptoSlate Forecast

30-day price prediction

Actual Forecast median 50% 80% 95%
Target-date scenarios Bullish scenario Bearish scenario Black swan stress
Solana price history and 30-day prediction distribution Actual daily closes run from $116.22 on Oct 7, 2026 to the $90.06 reference close on Nov 6, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Dec 6, 2026; the scenarios below give the exact values on that date. Blue plain shading shows prices above the dashed median; orange hatched shading shows prices below it. Target-date markers use a circle for bullish, a triangle for bearish and an orange diamond for stress. The black swan marker is a separate stress estimate. Bullish scenario: $114 Bearish scenario: $77.42 Black swan stress: $39.56
Actual daily closes run from $116.22 on Oct 7, 2026 to the $90.06 reference close on Nov 6, 2026. The projected median and 50%, 80% and 95% predictive bands then extend to Dec 6, 2026; the scenarios below give the exact values on that date. Blue plain shading shows prices above the dashed median; orange hatched shading shows prices below it. Target-date markers use a circle for bullish, a triangle for bearish and an orange diamond for stress. The black swan marker is a separate stress estimate.

30-day bullish, bearish and stress scenarios

Target close

  • Bullish scenario

    26.8%
    $114 $106 to $127 corridor

    The bullish scenario is the model P80 terminal estimate, with its P70-P90 corridor shown as a range.

  • Bearish scenario

    14.0%
    $77.42 $68.97 to $83.77 corridor

    The bearish scenario is the model P20 terminal estimate, with its P10-P30 corridor shown as a range.

  • Black swan stress

    56.1%
    $39.56 Extreme-tail stress marker; not a precise probability claim

    This stressed downside marker extends the fitted loss tail beyond ordinary simulations and should not be read as a precise probability forecast.

Stress assumptions

  • Downside shock A clustered downside shock exceeds the model ordinary volatility regime.
  • Liquidity stress Liquidity deteriorates while forced selling amplifies the daily tail loss.
  • Tail extension The figure is an EVT stress extension, not a stated one-percent event probability.

Probabilistic scenario analysis, not a guarantee or investment recommendation.

Solana price prediction by year

December 31 UTC close · USD
YearTarget dateUpside scenarioCentral scenarioDownside scenario
2026Year-end UTC close$132.38 increased by 47.00% from reference close$90.61 increased by 0.60% from reference close$61.45 decreased by 31.80% from reference close
2027Year-end UTC close$296.26 increased by 229.00% from reference close$95.73 increased by 6.30% from reference close$31.21 decreased by 65.30% from reference close
2028Year-end UTC close$464.03 increased by 415.30% from reference close$94.94 increased by 5.40% from reference close$21.67 decreased by 75.90% from reference close
2029Year-end UTC close$698.17 increased by 675.20% from reference close$99.81 increased by 10.80% from reference close$16.13 decreased by 82.10% from reference close
2030Year-end UTC close$932.54 increased by 935.50% from reference close$100.26 increased by 11.30% from reference close$12.22 decreased by 86.40% from reference close

Illustrative USD scenarios for December 31 through 2030. Percentage changes use the frozen reference close. A simulation uses up to three years of price history and drift shrinkage, adjusted by saved milestone assumptions. These bounds are not calibrated probability intervals; short-term backtests do not validate the annual model.

Reference close: Nov 6, 2026. Each event effect phases in once and is then held constant. Neutral central assumptions leave the central baseline unchanged. Overlapping events and effects already reflected in price can distort results. Review the assumptions with each event; price effects are illustrative editorial inputs.

View forecast milestones

Solana forecast milestones

Price effects are editorial assumptions saved with this forecast, not source-backed estimates.

2026 Nov–Nov

Network upgrade · Solana network

Agave 4.4 runtime upgrades

Solana’s official roadmap targets Agave 4.4 for November 2026, including sBPFv3 for new program deployments and CPI nesting depth increasing from four to eight. These changes could support more complex applications and simplify runtime support. Migration work, bugs, delays or weak adoption could offset benefits. Existing programs continue to run; the release does not guarantee additional demand for SOL.

Proposed solana.com primary source Checked

Illustrative price effects

Upside
0%
Central
0%
Downside
0%
Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Zero adjustment in all scenarios. The source supports the event description and timing status, but does not quantify a SOL price effect. No additional numerical effect is assumed. Related upgrades, regulatory changes and adoption trends can overlap, so this entry should not duplicate adjustments elsewhere.
Event timing
Nov 1, 2026 – Nov 30, 2026
Phase-in
Begins at the expected date or window start; reaches full effect 180 days after the event or window ends.
2026 Dec–Dec

Network upgrade · Solana network

Agave 4.5: more accounts per v1 transaction

Solana’s official roadmap targets Agave 4.5 for December 2026, with the account limit for v1 transactions increasing from 64 to 96. More accounts could let applications combine additional pools, programs and signers in one transaction. Delivery depends on development and activation, while actual application adoption and SOL fee demand remain uncertain.

Proposed solana.com primary source Checked

Illustrative price effects

Upside
0%
Central
0%
Downside
0%
Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Zero adjustment in all scenarios. The source supports the event description and timing status, but does not quantify a SOL price effect. No additional numerical effect is assumed. Related upgrades, regulatory changes and adoption trends can overlap, so this entry should not duplicate adjustments elsewhere.
Event timing
Dec 1, 2026 – Dec 31, 2026
Phase-in
Begins at the expected date or window start; reaches full effect 180 days after the event or window ends.
2027 Jan–Sep

Regulation · European Union

First DAC8 crypto-asset reporting and information exchange

DAC8 reporting covers relevant 2026 crypto-asset transactions, with the first reporting cycle falling between January 1 and September 30, 2027 and domestic deadlines varying. For SOL, obligations on relevant service providers could change compliance costs, access friction and confidence in regulated markets. This is a reporting regime, not a new token tax rate or a ban; coverage depends on the provider and transaction.

Scheduled EU Commission primary source Checked

Illustrative price effects

Upside
0%
Central
0%
Downside
0%
Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Zero adjustment in all scenarios. The source supports the event description and timing status, but does not quantify a SOL price effect. No additional numerical effect is assumed. Related upgrades, regulatory changes and adoption trends can overlap, so this entry should not duplicate adjustments elsewhere.
Event timing
Jan 1, 2027 – Sep 30, 2027
Phase-in
Begins at the expected date or window start; reaches full effect 180 days after the event or window ends.
TBD Date not known

Network upgrade · Solana network

Alpenglow Phase 2: Rotor block propagation

The Solana Foundation describes Rotor as a later Alpenglow phase that would replace Turbine’s block propagation tree with a single relay layer to reduce network latency. Votor is already live, but Rotor has no announced activation schedule. Better propagation could improve reliability and application responsiveness; implementation risk, delays and limited economic adoption could offset any benefit to SOL demand.

Proposed solana.com primary source Checked

Context only

Date not known; no price adjustment.

Assumptions and timing
Editorial note
Zero adjustment in all scenarios. The source supports the event description and timing status, but does not quantify a SOL price effect. No additional numerical effect is assumed. Related upgrades, regulatory changes and adoption trends can overlap, so this entry should not duplicate adjustments elsewhere.
Event timing
Date not known

How we build this forecast

We use historical Solana prices to model possible outcomes. Backtested forecasts and fitting-only illustrative outlooks have separate evidence and limitations.

  1. Historical prices

    Past price data informs volatility and market patterns.

  2. Range of outcomes

    Models estimate possible future prices. Illustrative outlooks also apply saved milestone assumptions.

  3. Tested on past data

    Held-out forecasts are scored against a simple baseline. This does not validate the separate illustrative outlooks.

Latest 30-day validation

1.02% worse than baseline

CRPS improvement -1.02%; one-sided 95% lower bound -2.70%.

Model
0.4.0
Snapshot as of
Model details and inputs

Technical details

The forecast combines a horizon-aware, drift-shrunk Student-t GARCH model, filtered historical simulation, and regularized quantile regression. Nonnegative model weights are learned from earlier Monday-UTC forecast dates without using future data. An embargo of 4 weekly origins separates calibration from evaluation, followed by 20 held-out forecasts spaced 35 days apart. Performance is measured using CRPS and coverage diagnostics against the strongest predeclared simple baseline. An EVT model extends the downside tail for the black-swan stress scenario.

Price data CoinMarketCap, CryptoSlate

  • Volatility baseline Models changing volatility and heavy-tailed returns with a Student-t GARCH process. 0.0% ensemble weight
  • Historical simulation Replays filtered historical shocks to preserve non-normal moves without looking ahead. 100.0% ensemble weight
  • Quantile estimates Uses regularized predictors to estimate the terminal distribution at multiple percentiles. 0.0% ensemble weight
Model sensitivities
  • 30-day price momentum

    Momentum shifts the regularized quantile component while shrinkage limits extrapolation.

  • Volatility and fat tails

    Higher conditional volatility widens both upside and downside predictive bands.

  • Fixed-time prediction markets

    The first release retains a zero-weight boundary until historical overlay validation is available.

Risks and limitations

  • Past market behavior may not represent a new market structure or regulatory shock.

  • The forecast targets one UTC terminal price and does not predict the full intraday path.

  • Actual prices can finish outside every displayed interval.

  • Non-overlapping labels reduce mechanical overlap, but regime dependence can persist and manual review remains required.

Validation evidence
  • Backtest origins

    An origin is a historical date when the model is tested as if it were issuing a live forecast.

    Public raw backtest origins are fixed to Monday UTC to prevent schedule shopping, meaning results cannot be improved by choosing unusually favorable start dates. This horizon requires at least 1,534 continuous daily candles, including up to six days of weekday-alignment slack.

  • Calibration and holdout

    Calibration origins are earlier forecasts used to choose the ensemble weights. Held-out origins are kept separate and used only to evaluate the chosen model.

    This run used 72 weekly calibration origins and compared weight selection with filtered historical simulation. An embargo then skipped 4 weekly dates, creating a deliberate gap before evaluation.

    The final 20 held-out origins were issued 35 days apart across a 96-position validation span so their 30-day outcomes do not overlap.

  • CRPS and confidence

    CRPS stands for Continuous Ranked Probability Score. It measures the accuracy of the full probability forecast rather than a single price target; lower is better because it rewards both an accurate center and honest uncertainty bands.

    The held-out point edge against the strongest simple baseline was -1.0%. The minimum one-sided 95% paired lower bound was -2.7%; this conservative check asks whether the measured advantage remains above zero after accounting for sample variation.

    The monitoring target is a point edge of at least 2% and a positive lower bound against both GARCH and filtered historical simulation. These regime-dependent diagnostics remain advisory and do not interrupt publication.

  • Simulation and reproducibility

    A simulation path is one plausible 30-day price journey drawn by the model.

    The published run used 2,000 paths for the displayed distribution and 2,000 paths at each backtest origin.

    RNG seed 713,932,691,939,619,438 fixes the random-number stream so an identical run can be reproduced. It is deterministically derived from the frozen forecast.v1 production salt, horizon, asset ID, and modeled reference-close timestamp; candles, provenance, and market inputs do not select the random stream. The modeled reference close is timestamped 2026-11-06T23:59:59Z.

  • Prediction-market overlay

    No quality-qualified Polymarket evidence contributed to this forecast, so prediction-market prices did not move the published distribution.

Model
illustrative-outlook.v1
Price history
1,096 consecutive daily closes, from 2023-11-07 to 2026-11-06. Minimum: 366 closes; maximum: 1096.
Method
One horizon-adjusted Student-t GARCH simulation supplies the rolling 365-day and year-end targets.
Milestones
Saved milestone effects are editorial assumptions.
Validation
No held-out target-horizon validation or calibrated coverage is claimed.
Full methodology Opens in a new tab

Solana prediction track record

Showing retained 30-day forecasts. 2 of 2 checked closes fell inside the 80% model range (100%).

Scroll to view all columns

Forecast dateTarget dateMedian80% rangeActual closeResult
$104.31$77.06 to $143.60$118.40Inside range
$100.89$73.46 to $136.36$117.01Inside range

One first-retained forecast per two-month calendar period, up to six rows. Completed checkpoints take priority. Values stay fixed; results use exact CoinMarketCap USD daily closes. The displayed sample’s hit rate excludes pending targets and missing closes. Past results do not guarantee future accuracy.

Public Solana predictions

What public figures said, when they said it, and the targets they set. These statements are separate from the CryptoSlate forecast.

Unknown statement dates use the article date. Price sorting uses single USD targets; other targets appear last.
  1. Said on

    Matthew Sigel

    Head of Digital Assets Research · VanEck

    VanEck’s February 2025 research, coauthored by Matthew Sigel, projected SOL at $520 by year-end 2025. The model assumed Solana’s share of smart-contract-platform market capitalization would rise from 15% to 22%, within a projected $1.1 trillion sector, supported by developer activity, DEX usage, revenue and user growth.

    The $520 target was not reached by year-end 2025. As checked on November 7, 2026, CryptoSlate’s Solana profile reports an all-time high of $294.33 on January 19, 2025, below the forecast target. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $520
    Timeframe
    By year-end 2025
    Conditions
    Historical forecast; rising smart-contract-platform market share and M2 growth assumptions
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  2. Said on

    Matthew Hougan

    Chief Investment Officer · Bitwise Asset Management

    Bitwise’s 2025 outlook, coauthored by Matt Hougan and Ryan Rasmussen, set a $750 SOL target during 2025. Its thesis combined growing developer activity and memecoin activity with more established projects migrating to Solana, alongside a supportive institutional and regulatory backdrop.

    The $750 target was not reached during 2025. CryptoSlate’s retrospective explicitly identifies Bitwise’s SOL target as missed and reports Solana trading in the low-$100s into year-end. Assessment evidence · Reviewed Nov 7, 2026

    Price target
    $750
    Timeframe
    During 2025
    Conditions
    Historical annual outlook; application growth and institutional adoption
    Editorial assessment
    Target missed
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage
  3. Said on

    Matthew Sigel

    Head of Digital Assets Research · VanEck

    VanEck’s 2030 valuation study, coauthored by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, modeled SOL from $9.81 in the bear case to $3,211.28 in the bull case, with a $335 base case. The scenarios relied on different market-share and revenue assumptions; the adoption thesis included Solana hosting an application with more than 100 million users. These were illustrative valuation scenarios, not a guaranteed outcome.

    Price target
    $9.81–$3,211.28 (bear to bull); $335 base case
    Timeframe
    By 2030
    Conditions
    Illustrative bear, base and bull valuation scenarios; mass-adoption assumptions
    Published Read CryptoSlate coverage

Historical statements retain their original context. Targets may change; inclusion is not endorsement or a claim of accuracy.

Solana price prediction FAQ

How is the Solana price prediction calculated?

Backtested forecasts model prices at a stated target date using historical returns and volatility. Separately labeled illustrative outlooks fit scenarios to available price history with any saved milestone assumptions. The Method section identifies the inputs and validation evidence for the selected run.

What do the low and high forecasts mean?

In the backtested forecast table, low and high are the 10th and 90th model percentiles at the target date. Actual outcomes can fall outside them. Separately labeled illustrative outlooks use downside, central and upside scenarios with editorial milestone assumptions; their bounds are not calibrated probability intervals.

Why is the one-year outlook labeled unvalidated?

Enough daily price history is available to fit a one-year model, but held-out one-year validation is unavailable. Its upside, central and downside scenarios are illustrative, not calibrated probabilities. A shorter-horizon backtest does not validate this outlook.

Why do the one-year and year-end targets differ?

The one-year target is 365 days after its reference close. By-year rows are December 31 UTC closes, so the target dates can differ. The illustrative one-year and year-end targets use the same frozen simulation and saved milestone assumptions.

How do future milestones affect the forecasts?

Saved milestone assumptions adjust annual scenarios and illustrative outlooks using each event’s timing and phase-in settings. Dates and event mechanics may be sourced, but price effects are editorial assumptions. Neutral central assumptions leave the baseline unchanged; undated events and events outside the forecast window add no numerical effect. These adjustments do not alter the backtested 30-day, 90-day or one-year forecasts.

How should I judge the forecast’s accuracy?

Check the Method section and Track record where available. Backtests compare earlier forecasts with known outcomes and a simple baseline; a result for one horizon does not validate another. Historical performance does not establish future accuracy, and annual scenarios and illustrative outlooks have separate limitations.

Can this predict whether a price will be touched?

No. A terminal distribution describes prices at a target date. It does not give the probability of touching a threshold at any point before that date.

Why can the reference close differ from the current price?

Each forecast uses a frozen reference close. Current quotes can change after the run. Forecast percentage changes are measured from that reference close, not from the latest quote.

Why are some forecast horizons or sections missing?

Price targets require enough usable historical data and an available published model output. A horizon can also be paused or withheld. Sections such as annual forecasts, milestones and prediction markets are omitted when they have no published content.

Are predictions guaranteed or investment advice?

No. Model assumptions, limited historical samples and changing market conditions create substantial uncertainty. Older snapshots are labeled, and paused forecasts withhold current targets.

More price predictions

Prediction disclaimer

Forecasts are model-based scenarios, not financial advice or guarantees. Data quality, model limits and event assumptions affect results. Past performance does not predict returns; you may lose all you invest.

Ownership & affiliation

All images, branding and wording belong to Solana and their respective owners. CryptoSlate has no affiliation with the projects mentioned. This page provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes.