Research
Politics
Fresh Iran strikes failed to spark panic, leaving Bitcoin set for a volatile week ahead
Fresh U.S. strikes put Bitcoin Iran risk back in play, but oil, Fed pricing, ETF flows, and proxy stocks must confirm the macro shock.
Adoption
Tether’s Georgia stablecoin plan moves early on national payment rails
GEL₮ puts the lari on private stablecoin rails, but issuer approval, reserves, redemption rights, and payment access will decide whether it works.
Regulation
CFTC may gain broader crypto oversight as staff who questioned major firms were reportedly sidelined
The CLARITY Act would expand CFTC crypto oversight as the New York Times says officials who questioned Polymarket, Crypto.com and Gemini-related plans were sidelined.
Deals
Bitcoin Iran-deal rally faces its real test in oil flows and Fed pricing
The rally has a clear macro path, but oil flows, gasoline prices, inflation data, Fed pricing, and nuclear terms still have to confirm the trade.
Hacks
Polymarket suffers live POL drain as team rules out feared contract exploit
Team statements point to a Polymarket private key compromise rather than core contracts or user funds.
Politics
US labor federation warns CLARITY Act could push crypto closer to workers’ retirement money
The AFL-CIO says clearer crypto market rules could make digital assets easier to package into 401(k) and retirement investment products before stronger safeguards are in place.
Mining
Canaan earnings show Q1 revenue collapse as record BTC and ETH treasury nears $148M
Canaan earnings highlighted collapsing ASIC demand, weaker guidance, and a growing Bitcoin and Ethereum treasury approaching $148 million.
ETF
Bitcoin ETF demand weakens despite CLARITY Act policy win
Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $648.6 million days after the CLARITY Act advanced, turning a policy win into a test of institutional demand.
DeFi
84% of BTC hashrate secured Bitcoin DeFi in Q1, but miners saw little fee upside
Rootstock’s Q1 report shows a large share of Bitcoin hashrate securing smart-contract infrastructure, but fees and usage still decide whether that security becomes economically meaningful.
Macro
Bitcoin is left stranded as Fed projections flip to 54% chance of rate hikes this year
Bitcoin’s rate-cut cushion has vanished as futures now price a rising chance that the Fed’s next move is higher.
Derivatives
CME is launching a VIX style fear trade to Bitcoin. Now comes the hard part
CME’s BVI contract turns Bitcoin implied volatility into a regulated futures trade, giving institutions a way to hedge or bet on BTC turbulence without taking a direct price view.
Regulation
CLARITY Act will give crypto a new regulator before the CFTC has the staff to run it
The CLARITY Act would push crypto spot markets under the CFTC. The unresolved test is whether an agency down 21.5% in payroll FTEs can turn that mandate into rules, registrations, surveillance, and enforcement.
