Derivatives
Analysis
Strong jobs just triggered a hawkish UBS reversal that could pressure Bitcoin through December
UBS now expects two Fed rate hikes this year, extending Bitcoin’s macro headwind through December.
Macro
Bitcoin’s faces a weird new macro reality as the Fed turns off the tap and Treasury opens the floodgates
The Fed and Treasury are approaching the bond market with very different problems, and Bitcoin ultimately feels both of them.
ETF
The $63 billion revolving door carrying the entire US Bitcoin ETF market
IBIT has become Bitcoin’s dominant US ETF with enough inflows to offset the combined net withdrawals from every rival fund.
Analysis
Inside the 15-minute trading pulse that moves $14 billion in Bitcoin perpetual futures
Crypto trades through every hour of the week, but its supposedly continuous market has built an opening bell that rings 96 times a day.
Analysis
From power laws to AI networks, why complex Bitcoin price models memorize market noise
Bitcoin has inspired hundreds of increasingly elaborate attempts to predict its price, but many of them still struggle to outperform the simplest possible answer once the future actually arrives.
DAOs
DAOs are forcing crypto protocols to choose between code and emergency brakes
DAOs replaced boards and executives with token holders and software, but new research suggests the machinery protecting those systems can easily rebuild the concentrations of power they were meant to escape.
DeFi
How the “buy, borrow, die” tax trade is quietly loading DeFi pools with hidden credit risk
Borrowing against appreciated crypto can postpone a tax bill and preserve exposure to future gains, but the same incentive that makes the trade attractive can become a source of risk for everyone funding the loan.
AI
Wall Street is turning AI’s massive electricity appetite into a $61 billion bond market
AI has made access to electricity so valuable that Wall Street is beginning to package those megawatts into investable debt.
Trading
Kalshi’s new oil contract promises non-stop exposure, but a hidden flaw could expose traders to massive weekend shocks
A perpetual oil contract sounds like a natural transplant from crypto until the physical realities of crude start getting in the way.
AI
AI data centers are learning the power trick Bitcoin miners mastered first
One of the most promising answers to AI’s electricity problem begins with an almost heretical idea for the tech industry: sometimes the computer should just wait.
Macro
How $739B in new US debt could absorb crypto’s liquidity before buybacks even reach Bitcoin
A bigger Treasury buyback program sounds like liquidity support, but heavy new issuance could offset much of that effect before it reaches Bitcoin.
Banking
The next shadow-banking problem comes from insurance companies, where nobody was looking for a bank run
A $20 billion filing correction is forcing a closer look at how deeply private credit has embedded itself inside US life insurers.
