Politics
Backing Polymarket’s primary favorites would have lost 4%, new audit finds.
Bitquery’s 273-race scorecard found an 87% win rate, but its equal-dollar hypothetical shows why accurate calls can come at losing prices.
Polymarket
Latest stories
Trading
Polymarket’s upgrade won’t automatically move existing bets to new contracts
App users follow approval prompts, while integrations must keep CTF support and add V2 identifiers and permissions.
Legal
New York sues Polymarket, seeks triple gains and $100,000 penalties over prediction markets
The state wants restrictions spanning sports, elections and culture, extending an enforcement campaign already aimed at Kalshi, Coinbase and Gemini.
Legislation
CLARITY Act may be heading for lame duck after House Republicans slash the calendar
The Senate votes Sept. 15, but the House leaves two days later, leaving almost no time to finish the crypto market-structure bill.
Derivatives
Most world cup traders won less than $5 on Polymarket while FIVE wallets walked away with millions
Polymarket and Kalshi captured record sports activity, but only 54 Polymarket addresses collected nearly 60% of all gains.
Censorship
France blocked Polymarket after its transaction controls failed to stop 578,751 new French visitors
ANJ cited Similarweb estimates after operator-level controls were circumvented in practice while the platform's live odds remained visible.
Trading
Hyperliquid challenges Polymarket with $32 million opening for prediction-market builders
The HIP-4 framework could accelerate prediction-market listings, though prospective operators must lock 500,000 HYPE tokens.
Exchanges
Coinbase World Cup error shows prediction markets still have a proof problem
A disputed Coinbase sports alert shows why exchange-run prediction markets need visible provenance, verified event data, and clear accountability before automated content scales inside trading apps.
Sports
Crypto bettors believe Balogun’s suspended red card will give USA edge over Belgium
Polymarket and Kalshi traders price the American striker’s return as a narrow boost before the World Cup knockout match
Trading
Polymarket’s $3.3B World Cup boom exposes the longshot trap inside prediction markets
Traders are pricing a possible rematch of the 2022 final, even as billions in historical volume remain scattered across longshot teams.
Adoption
Charles Schwab prediction market partnership with Cboe to take traders away from Polymarket, Kalshi
Schwab’s reported Cboe work shows how S&P 500 outcome trades could move from crypto rails into brokerage accounts.
Trading
Three World Cup betting accounts won $24M. Why did the money all go to one Binance address?
The accounts won most of their settled bets, stopped trading, and left behind a cashout trail that points to one Binance address.
