Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)

Polymarket’s “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)” event asks for the exact Republican winning map across seven 2026 Senate contests. In the imported snapshot reviewed on November 3, None led at 33.5%, followed by IA at 9.9%, IA, KS at 5.5%, and All 7 at 4.2%. These are prices for complete combinations of results, not individual state win probabilities or declared election outcomes.

Seven contests define the map

The covered states are Alaska (AK), Iowa (IA), Kansas (KS), Maine (ME), Michigan (MI), Ohio (OH) and Texas (TX). Ohio refers specifically to the special Senate election. The source rules cover the elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, including any potential runoffs.

Seven states produce 128 possible winning sets. None means the Republican candidate wins none of these seven contests. All 7 means a Republican win in every covered state. The labels should be interpreted within this group; None does not mean that Republicans win no Senate races anywhere in the country.

Each combination must match exactly

A listed outcome resolves Yes only when Republicans win every state named in that outcome and do not win any other state covered by the event. For example, IA, KS requires Republican victories in Iowa and Kansas and non-Republican results in the other five states. An additional Republican victory in Texas would make that particular combination incorrect.

The IA-only quote likewise describes an Iowa win paired with Republican losses in all six other covered contests. It cannot be read as the overall probability of a Republican victory in Iowa. That broader question includes every combination containing IA. The same distinction applies to each state and prevents a single map quote from being mistaken for a standalone race forecast.

Party affiliation and unresolved results matter

The rules treat a candidate as Republican based on ballot-listed affiliation or nomination by the Republican Party. An independent candidate does not count as Republican regardless of any other association with the party.

A state counts as not won by Republicans if a Democratic, independent or third-party candidate wins. The same treatment applies if its result cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. That provision and the inclusion of runoffs mean that the event’s November 3 date should not be interpreted as a promise that every race will be settled on election night.

Resolution follows calls or certification

The named resolution sources are the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC. The market resolves once all three have conclusively called the relevant elections. If they do not reach consensus, the rules use official certification.

Partial returns, an individual projection or an apparent lead therefore should not be substituted for the source’s resolution process. The imported scheduled deadline is November 3, 2026, at 23:59 UTC; the election-result rules, including runoffs and the March 2027 provision, separately govern final settlement.

What the leading quote establishes

None is the largest individual quoted combination in the reviewed snapshot, but its 33.5% price remains below 50%. A leading outcome is not a certainty or a majority forecast. The distribution across many alternatives also means that a low price for one specific map does not alone establish a low probability of Republican wins in the states it includes.

The import displayed approximately $62.01 million in volume, $40.04 million in liquidity and $3.76 million in open interest. Those figures and the odds can change. They describe trading activity, without establishing turnout, polling movement or the cause of traders’ views. The final assessment depends on the exact seven-state results and the settlement rules.

Source

Polymarket market and full resolution rules