Euro-area banks report record deterioration in retail-funding access

Euro-area banks reported their strongest deterioration in retail-funding access since 2011 in a European Central Bank survey released Oct. 27, adding evidence of tighter financing before the central bank’s Oct. 29 policy decision.

The bank lending survey put the net balance reporting worse access at 9% in the third quarter, up from 3% in the second. The ECB still described the deterioration as moderate. The measure compares responses reporting deterioration with those reporting easing.

Banks said higher lending rates were the main reason corporate loan terms tightened. Funding costs and balance-sheet constraints also contributed to tougher terms. But risk perceptions and lower risk tolerance led the tightening in loan-approval standards, where funding constraints had a broadly neutral impact.

The separate borrower survey also reported cost pressure. The ECB’s Oct. 26 enterprise-financing survey showed a net 46% reporting higher bank-loan interest rates, compared with 42% previously. The response base covers firms that applied for bank loans, credit lines or bank or credit-card overdrafts. The figure counts firms reporting increases minus those reporting decreases.

The borrower sample changed substantially, with first-time respondents forming a majority. Separately, about half of firms answered for July through September while the remainder covered April through September. Those differing windows complicate comparisons; the ECB’s explicit warning about the sample change particularly concerns numerical expectations.

How financing costs could reach Bitcoin

The financing constraints coexist with continued money and loan growth. ECB data released Oct. 27 showed September annual growth of 3.5% in broad money, 4.2% in adjusted corporate loans and 3.1% in adjusted household loans, all unchanged from August. Those annual growth measures can remain positive while new borrowing becomes harder or more expensive.

A 2023 IMF working paper offers a possible mechanism: it found that US Federal Reserve tightening reduced a common crypto-price factor through investors’ risk taking. Applying that finding to European financing costs is an inference.

For Bitcoin, the potential pressure runs through the cost of financing and investors’ willingness to take risk. If more expensive credit prompts investors to borrow less or reduce the amount they are willing to risk, demand for Bitcoin could weaken.

Wider funding spreads, tighter dollar financing and actual deleveraging would strengthen the case that regional strain is reaching crypto investors. Stable dollar funding and sustained Bitcoin demand would weaken it.

The next policy checkpoint is the ECB decision scheduled for Oct. 29 at 14:15 CET.