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12 more outcomes Listed by current odds
- December 31 100% $1
- April 22 0% $0
- April 24 0% $0
- April 30 0% $0
- May 8 0% $0
- May 11 0% $0
- May 13 0% $0
- May 15 0% $0
- May 22 0% $0
- May 26 0% $0
- May 31 0% $0
- June 7 0% $0
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 18, 2026 1:53 am.
What could move the odds
Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.
Market-implied thesis
Pricing implies the market treats a qualifying US-Iran permanent peace deal as effectively already satisfied or procedurally inevitable across all listed dates.
Because every timeframe is shown at $1, interpretation depends less on diplomacy forecasts and more on whether Polymarket has already deemed the condition met or is near resolution.
What could reprice it
The next material catalyst is not ordinary negotiation news but an official resolution action or clarifying statement on what counts as a permanent peace deal.
A formal market-resolution notice, credible treaty announcement, or official US/Iran statement could change whether $1 pricing is treated as final or contestable.
Where the market may be weak
The wording is broad: “permanent peace deal” lacks a precise legal test, creating room for disputes between ceasefires, statements, treaties, and normalization steps.
High visible depth does not remove interpretive risk if settlement turns on subjective classification rather than a named document or official registry.
Counter-signal
A serious counter is that diplomatic durability is hard to verify; even a major de-escalation may fall short of a permanent peace deal under strict resolution review.
If no binding, mutually acknowledged agreement exists by the relevant deadline, market pricing could be overstating the chance that headlines satisfy the contract.
AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.
Probability history
Market details
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Platform
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- Category
- Politics › Iran
- Close date
- December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
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