US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?

Politics Iran One Off Open Ends Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
December 31
79.5%
$0.795
October 31
73.5%
$0.735
August 31
63%
$0.63
July 31
50.5%
$0.505
June 30
36.5%
$0.365
1 more outcomes Listed by current odds
  • June 15 10.7% $0.107
Volume$311.15M Liquidity$1.75M Open Interest$20.66M Last updated2 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 14, 2026 2:27 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 14, 2026, 05:39 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Pricing implies traders see a formal US-Iran peace framework as more plausible over longer deadlines than an immediate diplomatic breakthrough.

The curve is really a timing claim: later expiries embed more room for negotiation, verification language, and official recognition of a qualifying deal.

Mixed signal 64% CatalystOfficial US-Iran agreement text RiskDefinition of permanent peace may be contested

What could reprice it

The next major repricing trigger is likely an official negotiation milestone, not media chatter: signed terms, mediator statements, or US/Iran confirmation.

A credible joint statement or published framework would matter more than anonymous reports because settlement depends on an actual agreement, not talks alone.

Mixed signal 58% CatalystJoint statement or signed framework RiskTalks can leak without meeting settlement standard

Where the market may be weak

Despite headline-sized volume, the market hinges on a vague phrase: “permanent peace deal” may be harder to verify than traders assume.

Resolution risk is material because ceasefires, nuclear side deals, prisoner swaps, or de-escalation pacts may not clearly qualify as permanent peace.

Rules risk 46% RiskAmbiguous settlement language

Counter-signal

The price may overstate deal odds if it extrapolates de-escalation headlines into a durable US-Iran settlement requiring deep political concessions.

Domestic politics, sanctions architecture, regional proxies, and verification disputes can block a formal peace deal even when tactical talks continue.

Counterweight 52% CatalystBreakdown in mediated talks RiskDiplomatic incentives can shift quickly

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Platform
Category
Politics › Iran
Close date
December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules

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