Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics Global Elections One Off Open Ends Nov 7, 2028, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
Marco Rubio
15.7%
$0.157
JD Vance
15.2%
$0.152
Gavin Newsom
14%
$0.14
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5.2%
$0.052
Kamala Harris
5.2%
$0.052
31 more outcomes Listed by current odds
  • Jon Ossoff 4.3% $0.043
  • Josh Shapiro 2.9% $0.029
  • Tucker Carlson 2.9% $0.029
  • Pete Buttigieg 2.5% $0.025
  • Andy Beshear 1.7% $0.017
  • Donald Trump 1.7% $0.017
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1.7% $0.017
  • Ron DeSantis 1.6% $0.016
  • Thomas Massie 1.4% $0.014
  • Donald Trump Jr. 1.2% $0.012
  • JB Pritzker 1.1% $0.011
  • Jamie Dimon 1.1% $0.011
  • Elon Musk 1% $0.01
  • Ro Khanna 1% $0.01
  • Ivanka Trump 0.9% $0.009
  • Stephen Smith 0.9% $0.009
  • Greg Abbott 0.9% $0.009
  • James Talarico 0.9% $0.009
  • Wes Moore 0.8% $0.008
  • Glenn Youngkin 0.8% $0.008
  • Tulsi Gabbard 0.8% $0.008
  • Vivek Ramaswamy 0.8% $0.008
  • Zohran Mamdani 0.8% $0.008
  • Michelle Obama 0.8% $0.008
  • Eric Trump 0.7% $0.007
  • Tim Walz 0.7% $0.007
  • Gretchen Whitmer 0.7% $0.007
  • LeBron James 0.7% $0.007
  • Pete Hegseth 0.7% $0.007
  • Nikki Haley 0.7% $0.007
  • Kim Kardashian 0.7% $0.007
Volume$622.99M Liquidity$35.53M Open Interest$65.31M Last updated2 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 9, 2026 1:07 pm.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 8, 2026, 23:38 UTC

Market-implied thesis

The market is pricing 2028 as a wide-open succession race, with no candidate treated as a durable front-runner this far before primaries.

Top names cluster in the mid-teens, suggesting party-positioning priors matter more than settled voter coalitions or confirmed nomination paths.

Mixed signal 63% CatalystPrimary entry signals RiskLong horizon dilutes signal

What could reprice it

The next major repricing window is likely the 2026 midterms, which can reset party narratives, governor profiles, Senate brands, and donor flows.

Candidate launches, FEC filings, early-state polling, and post-midterm approval data can turn speculative names into viable nomination paths.

Mixed signal 58% Catalyst2026 midterms RiskCatalyst timing may be diffuse

Where the market may be weak

A large headline market can still embed weak candidate-level signals because many outcomes trade as long-dated political lottery tickets.

Multi-outcome Yes prices reflect listed options, not a clean forecast for the full future candidate universe or nomination mechanics.

Thin signal 46% RiskBinary wording and candidate-list gaps

Counter-signal

The current leaders may be overpriced if 2028 rewards a nominee not yet visible, especially after midterm shocks or late institutional backing.

Open presidential fields often elevate governors, senators, or outsiders only after party losses, scandals, health events, or donor coordination.

Counterweight 52% CatalystLate entrant or party shock RiskUnknown candidate emergence

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
Platform
Category
Politics › Global Elections
Close date
November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules

News driving this market

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