Presidential Election Winner 2028

Politics Global Elections One Off Open Ends Nov 7, 2028, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
JD Vance
16.7%
$0.167
Gavin Newsom
16%
$0.16
Marco Rubio
15.7%
$0.157
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
5.6%
$0.056
Jon Ossoff
5.2%
$0.052
32 more outcomes Listed by current odds
  • Kamala Harris 5.1% $0.051
  • Josh Shapiro 2.9% $0.029
  • Tucker Carlson 2.7% $0.027
  • Pete Buttigieg 2.3% $0.023
  • Ron DeSantis 2.3% $0.023
  • Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1.8% $0.018
  • Andy Beshear 1.6% $0.016
  • Donald Trump 1.5% $0.015
  • Ro Khanna 1.2% $0.012
  • Thomas Massie 1.2% $0.012
  • Donald Trump Jr. 1.1% $0.011
  • JB Pritzker 1% $0.01
  • Jamie Dimon 1% $0.01
  • Greg Abbott 0.9% $0.009
  • James Talarico 0.9% $0.009
  • Elon Musk 0.8% $0.008
  • Glenn Youngkin 0.8% $0.008
  • Ivanka Trump 0.8% $0.008
  • Stephen Smith 0.8% $0.008
  • Tulsi Gabbard 0.8% $0.008
  • Zohran Mamdani 0.8% $0.008
  • Michelle Obama 0.8% $0.008
  • Eric Trump 0.7% $0.007
  • Tim Walz 0.7% $0.007
  • Gretchen Whitmer 0.7% $0.007
  • Wes Moore 0.7% $0.007
  • LeBron James 0.7% $0.007
  • Pete Hegseth 0.7% $0.007
  • Nikki Haley 0.7% $0.007
  • Vivek Ramaswamy 0.7% $0.007
  • Kim Kardashian 0.7% $0.007
  • Jalen Brunson 0.6% $0.006
Volume$631.71M Liquidity$39.06M Open Interest$73.19M Last updated8 mins ago

Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are sourced from Polymarket and last synced at Jun 18, 2026 10:38 am.

What could move the odds

Informational summary of factors that may affect reported probabilities.

Updated Jun 17, 2026, 23:38 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Prices frame 2028 as a wide-open race, with Vance, Newsom and Rubio treated as viable party-standard bearers rather than fringe names.

The leading cluster implies the market is handicapping nomination paths and general-election electability years before formal primaries.

Mixed signal 58% CatalystEarly 2028 primary polling RiskLong horizon amplifies name-recognition bias

What could reprice it

The first durable repricing should come from 2027-28 primary polling, filing decisions, debates and fundraising reports, not daily political chatter.

Candidate entry, withdrawal, endorsements and early-state polling can collapse or expand currently broad probability bands.

Mixed signal 62% CatalystFEC filings and early-state polls RiskPolling before primaries can be noisy

Where the market may be weak

Despite large headline volume, this is a long-dated multi-outcome market where thin tails and celebrity names can distort implied probabilities.

Many sub-1% outcomes may reflect optionality, memes or stale quotes rather than serious election forecasts.

Thin signal 46% RiskMulti-outcome pricing may not map cleanly to true odds

Counter-signal

The market may underprice an unlisted or currently low-profile candidate if party coalitions shift after 2026 or incumbency dynamics change.

Four-year political regimes often turn on recession, war, scandals, court outcomes or unpopular administrations that are not yet observable.

Counterweight 52% Catalyst2026 midterms and approval trends RiskListed-candidate set may miss the eventual nominee

AI-generated market summary, reviewed for clarity. This summary is informational only, may contain errors, and is not financial, investment, betting, or trading advice.

Primary sources Polymarket market

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028.
Platform
Category
Politics › Global Elections
Close date
November 7, 2028, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules

News driving this market

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