Fed Decision in October?
Current Odds
Odds Summary
No change leads at 83.5% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
October Fed market favors no change in interest rates
The contract measures the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range, with a quarter-point increase the leading alternative.
No change leads the imported October 2026 Fed-decision market at approximately 78.5%, followed by a 25-basis-point increase at 21.5%. The other listed outcomes each carried less than 1% in the reviewed snapshot. These are market prices, not a Federal Reserve commitment.
What the contract measures
The market defines interest rates using the upper bound of the target federal funds range. It concerns the change announced for the October decision, rather than the effective federal funds rate, a bond yield or a forecast for later meetings.
The listed outcomes cover no change, quarter-point increases and decreases, and increases or decreases of 50 basis points or more. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Timing and settlement
The source market identifies the October 28, 2026 decision; the imported close time is October 29 at 03:59 UTC. The formal FOMC announcement and the market’s detailed rules determine the outcome. A press comment or a movement in futures prices is not itself a policy decision.
Reading the favorite
The no-change lead leaves room for another outcome and can shift before the meeting. It does not establish why traders favor a hold. Claims about employment, inflation or a prior policy change require separately verified evidence. The comparison here is between quoted expectations and the eventual change in the specified target-range measure.
Polymarket market and full rules · Federal Reserve meeting calendar
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The market implies the FOMC will leave the federal-funds target range unchanged in October, rather than extend September’s quarter-point increase.
Under the rules, the outcome turns on the target range’s upper bound. A pause would keep that upper bound at 4.00% after the September 16 decision.
What Could Reprice It
The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is the decisive repricing event because its target-range decision directly determines settlement of this contract.
The October 28 press conference accompanies the decision. CPI on October 14 and PPI on October 15 are earlier inflation inputs that could alter expectations ahead of it.
Where the Market May Be Weak
Reported turnover does not by itself demonstrate durable conviction: the available liquidity is far smaller, so attention may not equal executable depth near repricing.
With $26.77M in volume versus $2.98M in liquidity, historical trading activity is not a direct measure of current capacity to absorb new information without price movement.
Counter-Signal
The pause thesis could fail because the FOMC raised rates on September 16, leaving a recent tightening action that a hotter inflation signal could extend.
September payroll growth was soft and revisions were negative, but CPI and PPI have not yet been released; stronger inflation readings could revive the case for another increase.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- Platform
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- Category
- Economy › Economic Policy
- Scheduled deadline
- October 29, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- federalreserve.gov
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Fed Decision in October odds?
Polymarket reports Fed Decision in October odds with No change at 83.5%, 25 bps increase at 15.5%, 25 bps decrease at 0.5%, and 50+ bps increase at 0.4%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $27.33M volume, $3.12M liquidity, and $4M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 7, 2026, 04:17 UTC.
What could move the Fed Decision in October prediction market odds?
The market implies the FOMC will leave the federal-funds target range unchanged in October, rather than extend September’s quarter-point increase. Under the rules, the outcome turns on the target range’s upper bound. A pause would keep that upper bound at 4.00% after the September 16 decision. Catalysts to watch include October 27-28 FOMC rate decision, FOMC decision and October 28 press conference, and New inflation data or FOMC headlines.
How does the Fed Decision in October prediction market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. The settlement source listed for this market is Federalreserve.
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