Fed Decision in October?
Current Odds
Odds Summary
No change leads at 93.7% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
October Fed market favors no change in interest rates
The contract measures the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range, with a quarter-point increase the leading alternative.
No change leads the imported October 2026 Fed-decision market at approximately 78.5%, followed by a 25-basis-point increase at 21.5%. The other listed outcomes each carried less than 1% in the reviewed snapshot. These are market prices, not a Federal Reserve commitment.
What the contract measures
The market defines interest rates using the upper bound of the target federal funds range. It concerns the change announced for the October decision, rather than the effective federal funds rate, a bond yield or a forecast for later meetings.
The listed outcomes cover no change, quarter-point increases and decreases, and increases or decreases of 50 basis points or more. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point.
Timing and settlement
The source market identifies the October 28, 2026 decision; the imported close time is October 29 at 03:59 UTC. The formal FOMC announcement and the market’s detailed rules determine the outcome. A press comment or a movement in futures prices is not itself a policy decision.
Reading the favorite
The no-change lead leaves room for another outcome and can shift before the meeting. It does not establish why traders favor a hold. Claims about employment, inflation or a prior policy change require separately verified evidence. The comparison here is between quoted expectations and the eventual change in the specified target-range measure.
Polymarket market and full rules · Federal Reserve meeting calendar
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
At 94.5%, the market implies the FOMC will leave the 3.75%-4.00% target range unchanged, viewing a pause as far likelier than any move.
This is a claim about the October policy decision, because settlement uses the upper bound of the FOMC target range rather than commentary or forecasts.
What Could Reprice It
The October 28 FOMC statement and press conference are the decisive scheduled catalyst, as they will establish the target-range upper bound used for settlement.
The next PCE release is October 29 and the next jobs report is November 6, both after the meeting; the formal decision therefore dominates near-term repricing.
Where the Market May Be Weak
Reported turnover and liquidity do not establish evenly executable depth across all five contracts, so tiny cut-tail prices may be less informative than headline activity.
The market lists $7.24 million in liquidity but no trader count. Liquidity is a point-in-time measure and may not show how resilient pricing is across low-probability outcomes.
Counter-Signal
The pause thesis could fail if the Committee extends September tightening: CPI was 3.7% year over year after a unanimous quarter-point rate increase.
September CPI rose 0.6% month over month, while the September FOMC vote was 12-0 for a hike. Persistent inflation supplies the clearest evidence-based case for another increase.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
- Platform
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- Category
- Economy › Economic Policy
- Scheduled deadline
- October 29, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- federalreserve.gov
- Market rules summary
- Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current Fed Decision in October odds?
Polymarket reports Fed Decision in October odds with No change at 93.7%, 25 bps increase at 6.5%, 50+ bps increase at 0.4%, and 50+ bps decrease at 0.1%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $74.26M volume, $8.48M liquidity, and $15.54M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 27, 2026, 07:17 UTC.
What could move the Fed Decision in October prediction market odds?
At 94.5%, the market implies the FOMC will leave the 3.75%-4.00% target range unchanged, viewing a pause as far likelier than any move. This is a claim about the October policy decision, because settlement uses the upper bound of the FOMC target range rather than commentary or forecasts. Catalysts to watch include October 28 FOMC decision, FOMC statement, October 28, and Order-book depth near the decision.
How does the Fed Decision in October prediction market resolve?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. Multi-outcome Polymarket event. Each listed option is represented by its Yes price on the underlying market. The settlement source listed for this market is Federalreserve.
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