US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?

Politics Iran One Off Open Ends Dec 31, 2026, 00:00 UTC Source: Polymarket
1 December 31
77.5%
$0.775
2 July 31
58.5%
$0.585
3 June 30
42.5%
$0.425
4 June 15
29.5%
$0.295
5 June 7
19.5%
$0.195
1 more outcomes Listed by current odds
Volume$204.91M Liquidity$2.51M Open Interest$19.51M Last updated3 mins ago

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What could move the odds

Analyst memo on what current odds imply, the next catalyst, market weak spots, and the counter-signal.

Updated May 27, 2026, 23:37 UTC

Market-implied thesis

Prices imply a permanent US-Iran deal is viewed as possible but back-loaded, with earlier deadlines treated as much less plausible than year-end.

The curve is more informative than any single price: it reflects timing risk around a formal, durable agreement rather than generic de-escalation headlines.

Mixed signal 67% CatalystOfficial US-Iran joint statement RiskHeadline diplomacy may not meet rules

What could reprice it

The next material repricing trigger is a verifiable official negotiation milestone, especially language committing both states to a lasting settlement.

Informal talks, ceasefire language, or third-party reports may move sentiment, but resolution likely needs a clear agreement between the US and Iran.

Mixed signal 60% CatalystFormal deal text or joint communique RiskAmbiguous diplomatic wording

Where the market may be weak

“Permanent peace deal” is a high-bar phrase with room for interpretation, so market depth may overstate precision around a legally fuzzy outcome.

Liquidity is meaningful, but settlement depends on whether an agreement is judged permanent rather than temporary, partial, or nuclear-only.

Rules risk 52% RiskResolution-language ambiguity

Counter-signal

The market may be too optimistic if diplomatic incentives favor limited de-escalation or interim nuclear arrangements over a broad peace framework.

US-Iran relations involve sanctions, proxies, nuclear oversight, and domestic politics; any one track can block a comprehensive settlement.

Counterweight 48% CatalystBreakdown in talks or sanctions dispute RiskPartial deals mistaken for peace
Primary sources Polymarket market

AI analyst view

Probability history

Market details

Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Platform
Category
Politics › Iran
Close date
December 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules

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