What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Current Odds
15 more outcomes Listed by current odds, highest first
Odds Summary
Below $95 leads at 28% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
WTI’s October market measures price thresholds, not a closing target
Separate upward and downward contracts can both resolve positively if the qualifying oil-price path crosses their levels during October.
The October 2026 WTI market asks which crude-oil price thresholds will be reached during the month. Its upward and downward contracts describe separate events. They should not be treated as mutually exclusive forecasts of one month-end oil price.
How to read the ladder
A move through an upward threshold can occur before or after a decline through a downward threshold. Several related levels can be crossed in one month, so summing the displayed probabilities would be misleading. A short-lived qualifying move may matter even if the price later reverses.
The settlement reference matters
The imported entry names the Pyth CLL feed as its settlement source and displays a November 1, 2026 close. The source listing describes ICE WTI active-month one-minute candles, with an ICE fallback. The full contract rules govern the exact window, direction and fallback conditions.
Brent prices, retail fuel prices and another WTI contract are not interchangeable with that settlement reference. A general oil-market report or an average price does not establish that the required feed crossed a particular barrier.
Avoid reading a cause into the odds
Market prices do not prove that traders are responding to inventories, production, demand or geopolitical events. Those explanations need independent evidence. The entry’s central distinction is between expectations about future price movements and the qualifying observations that determine each contract’s result.
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
The market implies WTI is likely to have touched below $100 during October, while a move to $105 is only marginally more likely than not.
These are separate threshold-touch contracts, not mutually exclusive price forecasts: WTI could reach both levels within the month. EIA’s $99.93 reading for the week ended October 16 anchors the $100 threshold.
What Could Reprice It
The OPEC+ subgroup’s November 1 review is the clearest remaining policy event that could alter expected supply and move nearby WTI thresholds.
OPEC+ said the seven-member subgroup would continue monthly meetings and review market conditions on November 1. Its timing versus the November 1 market close is not provided, limiting the available repricing window.
Where the Market May Be Weak
Settlement clarity is the key limitation: the rules do not define the WTI benchmark, observation source, intraday test, or exact meaning of “hit.”.
The event is described as a multi-timeframe collection of binary-market Yes prices, but does not state how an October threshold touch is verified. That matters because EIA reported $99.93 for the week ended October 16.
Counter-Signal
Tight U.S. crude inventories and renewed Middle East flow disruption risk could keep WTI above $100 and produce a sharper upside threshold move.
EIA reported inventories down 3.1 million barrels week over week and 3% below the five-year average. Its October outlook also flags volatile Middle East flows after attacks on infrastructure and tankers.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
- Platform
-
- Category
- Finance › Commodities
- Scheduled deadline
- November 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- app.pyth.com
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 odds?
Polymarket reports What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 odds with ↓ $95 at 28%, ↑ $105 at 25.5%, ↓ $90 at 6.5%, and ↑ $110 at 4.2%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $4.87M volume, $1.22M liquidity, and $1.56M open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 27, 2026, 19:32 UTC.
What could move the What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 prediction market odds?
The market implies WTI is likely to have touched below $100 during October, while a move to $105 is only marginally more likely than not. These are separate threshold-touch contracts, not mutually exclusive price forecasts: WTI could reach both levels within the month. EIA’s $99.93 reading for the week ended October 16 anchors the $100 threshold. Catalysts to watch include OPEC+ market-conditions review on November 1, November 1 OPEC+ review, and Resolution-source clarification.
How does the What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 prediction market resolve?
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026? Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. The settlement source listed for this market is app.pyth.com.
Related Commodities Markets
What price will gold hit October 26–30, 2026? 
What price will silver hit in October 2026? 
What price will gold hit October 12–16, 2026? 