What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
Current Odds
14 more outcomes Listed by current odds, highest first
Odds Summary
Below $85 leads at 68% reported probability on Polymarket.
Polymarket · Last synced
Market Analysis
WTI’s October market measures price thresholds, not a closing target
Separate upward and downward contracts can both resolve positively if the qualifying oil-price path crosses their levels during October.
The October 2026 WTI market asks which crude-oil price thresholds will be reached during the month. Its upward and downward contracts describe separate events. They should not be treated as mutually exclusive forecasts of one month-end oil price.
How to read the ladder
A move through an upward threshold can occur before or after a decline through a downward threshold. Several related levels can be crossed in one month, so summing the displayed probabilities would be misleading. A short-lived qualifying move may matter even if the price later reverses.
The settlement reference matters
The imported entry names the Pyth CLL feed as its settlement source and displays a November 1, 2026 close. The source listing describes ICE WTI active-month one-minute candles, with an ICE fallback. The full contract rules govern the exact window, direction and fallback conditions.
Brent prices, retail fuel prices and another WTI contract are not interchangeable with that settlement reference. A general oil-market report or an average price does not establish that the required feed crossed a particular barrier.
Avoid reading a cause into the odds
Market prices do not prove that traders are responding to inventories, production, demand or geopolitical events. Those explanations need independent evidence. The entry’s central distinction is between expectations about future price movements and the qualifying observations that determine each contract’s result.
What Could Move the Odds?
Market-Implied Thesis
Pricing implies WTI is more likely than not to touch below $85 during October, while a rebound to $95 also remains plausible.
Because each outcome is a separate binary “hit” threshold, the prices describe intramonth barrier crossings rather than a single October closing-price forecast.
What Could Reprice It
The IEA’s October 14 Oil Market Report is the clearest future repricing event, as revised supply, demand, or inventory assumptions could reset WTI expectations.
Its timing falls within the market’s October measurement period, so an altered assessment of the global balance could affect whether price thresholds are reached.
Where the Market May Be Weak
The contract’s stated rules do not identify the price source, contract specification, or observation method used to determine whether WTI “hit” each threshold.
That omission matters more than headline participation metrics: a threshold market can turn on an intraday print, and the supplied criteria do not specify how such a print is verified.
Counter-Signal
Record U.S. crude production is the strongest offset to the below-$85 thesis, because additional supply could absorb tightness and limit downside pressure.
EIA forecasts U.S. crude output averaging 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026, above the 2025 record, creating a material supply-side buffer if demand softens.
Market Details
- Resolution criteria
- What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
- Platform
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- Category
- Finance › Commodities
- Scheduled deadline
- November 1, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC
- Settlement source
- app.pyth.com
- Market rules summary
- Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. View full rules
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the current What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 odds?
Polymarket reports What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 odds with ↓ $85 at 68%, ↑ $95 at 56.5%, ↓ $80 at 36.5%, and ↑ $100 at 32.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $1M volume, $775.9K liquidity, and $667.65K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Oct 7, 2026, 02:47 UTC.
What could move the What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 prediction market odds?
Pricing implies WTI is more likely than not to touch below $85 during October, while a rebound to $95 also remains plausible. Because each outcome is a separate binary “hit” threshold, the prices describe intramonth barrier crossings rather than a single October closing-price forecast. Catalysts to watch include October oil-balance data revisions, IEA Oil Market Report, October 14, and Settlement-source clarification.
How does the What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026 prediction market resolve?
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026? Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market. The settlement source listed for this market is app.pyth.com.
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